Southland Arithmetic: Subtraction

With SFA in North Dakota and about to begin the second weekend of tournament play for the 2012 season, we take our first look around the Southland Conference. In two weeks, the ‘Jacks will open SLC play against the Demons of Northwestern State in Shelton Gym. So, this is a good time to begin scanning rosters and sizing up our eventual competition. By the way, new speakers were hung in Shelton Gym today and we are hoping to do a little initial testing on the new sound system on Friday.

This post is actually going to have two parts because we’ll look at freshman making an impact early on in the conference in about two weeks. That will complete the pre-conference play puzzle in terms of analyzing rosters because for now we will look at losses rather than gains. For each SLC team, let’s take a look at what was lost during the off-season and the potential impact of those losses heading into the 2012 slate.

Central Arkansas
Key Losses: Cristin Curl
Impact of Losses: Minimal. Curl was an outstanding player – truly one of the best liberos in the conference the last several years. But, she is really the only impact loss UCA suffers and Shelbee Berringer should step right in.
Key Returners: (6) S Marissa Collins, DS Shelbee Berringer, MB Jessica Nagy, MB Taylor Hammonds, RS Jessica Hays (returns from injury), MB/OH Alicia Dettrich.
New: Five freshman which includes one redshirt.
Outlook: Strong. This is the team to beat in the Southland. They are as good a bet as any to be playing for the Southland Conference Tournament championship on their own floor in November.

Lamar
Key Losses: Megan McStravick (transfer to HBU), Angel Colyar
Impact of Losses: Minimal. McStravick was a key contributor on offense, but Lamar has enough attackers to cover for her loss. Colyar and additional loss Bailey Smith leave a small hole, but again.. not overly substantial.
Key Returners: (5) MB Christina Hobbs, MB Wendy Krell, OH Cynthia McCollum, S Alex Morford, OH Sierra Whittaker
New: Eight freshman including one redshirt.
Outlook: Potential Noisemakers. Not as strong as UCA on paper in my opinion, but one of the "top half" teams in the conference and capable of upsetting some in the very top tier. A four seed seems about right come November. I don’t think they have enough to string together a top seed and a tourney final appearance, but they might get one of those two.

McNeese
Key Losses: Nicole Bowden, Katie Kennedy, Taylor Bustamento, Becky Bekelja
Impact of Losses: Major. Bowden and Kennedy graduate and leave two holes on the front row. Setter Bekelja somehow gets a transfer release to play at Southeastern La. & I have no idea what happened to Bustamento, who was more than decent on the right side.
Key Returners: (2) L Whitney Ellisor, OH Rachel Cagnina
New: Six freshman and two transfers.
Outlook: Bleak. Veteran MB Shaundrea Boulden and OH Maegan Carelton will need to step up or this team is going to be playing essentially all new girls. Now, that might not be bad, but the team is very young and will be in danger of being one of the two teams left at home at the end of the year. Several players have left this program curiously (Massengale, Bekelja, Bustamento), so it is clear the club is trying to start anew and create a new regime and identity. This is the year I get off the McNeese bandwagon.

Nicholls State
Key Losses: Rachel Yezak, Jordan Karst
Impact of Losses: Minimal to Moderate. Nicholls always seems to be stacked with a lot of good, but not great players. File Yezak in that camp. This team never seems to go very far forward, but doesn’t take many steps back either. They have enough returning to hang around the middle of the conference and possibly play the role of spoiler at some point.
Key Returners: (5) OH Kathryn Stock, MB Jessica Addicks, DS Jennifer Dunn, MB Sarah Terry, OH Jennifer Brandt.
New: Two freshmen and two transfers.
Outlook: Hopeful. With a new head coach in place and a lot of returners the team can hope that it takes to new leadership and hovers around .500 in league play. They’ve got enough to get to Conway, but it’s hard to see a big step forward coming this year. Look for a seven or eight seed, here. Possibly higher if the newcomers make an impact.

Northwestern State
Key Losses: None
Impact of Losses: None
Key Returners: (7) OH Stacy DiFrancesco (’11 Freshman of Year), MB/RS MacKenzie Neely, OH Kelly Jimenez, OH Nicole Hajka, L Keelie Arneson, S Emily Sweet, MB Vanessa Coleman
New: Four freshman which includes one redshirt.
Outlook: Oh no, I ain’t making the same mistake twice. Last year written off – this year, I’m on the train. Things are turning up in Natchitoches. The question is: How fast will they progress? Like Nicholls, I’d pick them around 7th, but if they gel faster than what I project then they might upset some people and finish higher. There is something to be said for walking into Fall camp knowing you can throw the exact same lineup on the floor as the previous year. Except now.. the team has had a small taste of what it takes to succeed.

Oral Roberts
Key Losses: Elizabeth McVicker
Impact of Losses: Minimal. McVicker was a very strong player for ORU, but the club has decent depth and returns the entire cast that was around her, so there is just one hole to plug going into 2012.
Key Returners: (6) OH Olivia Ophus, MH/OH Joana Gruber, MB Jessica Pancratz, L Bruna Silva, MB Sheina Fernandes, S Laura Taylor.
New: Three freshmen.
Outlook: Strong. A clear top tier team in the SLC as they begin play with us. Get familiar with Silva: you’ll see and hear her name a lot during the year. The international composition of this team is different than what you see on most league rosters. I think they cause their share of fits. I’ll take either ORU or Sam Houston to face UCA in the tournament final.

Sam Houston State
Key Losses: Carli Kolbe, Kym Loving, Kelly Stewart
Impact of Losses: Substantial, but not as much as you might think. Look, losing Kolbe would be a massive hole to fill for any squad and the fiery Loving will be missed too. However, the coaches’ daughter takes over at setter and this team was deep last year which will allow it to fill holes admirably. I’m high on Kendall Cleveland, but the Bearkats have other weapons to help ease the pain of losing a dynamo like Kolbe.
Key Returners: (5) MB Haley Neisler, S Tayler Gray, MB Kim Black, OH Kendall Cleveland, UTIL Kaylee Hawkins
New: Five freshman which includes one redshirt plus one transfer
Outlook: Headed toward a top seed. “They lost Kolbe, so they won’t be as good”. Go ahead. Believe that. I won’t say I told you so when they finish third and wind up either in or barely missing the conference championship game. Like I said above, ORU will be tough. My reading and studying tells me to pick a UCA/ORU final, but my gut tells me it will be UCA/SHSU. So I can officially be on record for better or for worse, I am going to go with my gut.

Southeastern Louisiana
Key Losses: Paige Dollison, Kinsey Williams
Impact of Losses: Minimal. SLU is a work in progress and they return the majority of their key players from last year. It’s not like a lot can go out the door when there really wasn’t a lot in the gym to begin with.
Key Returners: (5) L Megan McMillan, DS Taylor Buckner, MB Courtney Donald, S Lindsey Young, OH Elizabeth Ramee. The addition of McNeese transfer setter Becky Bekelja is officially a return to the conference, but new to SLU.
New: Bekelja and six freshmen.
Outlook: A long way to go. That being said, with 8 of 10 teams going to Conway, this looks like a window of opportunity to sneak in the final slot and earn the right to be UCA’s first victim. I don’t think that will happen, but it’s a reasonable goal for a team on paper that looks like it should finish at or near the bottom. Regular readers may recall that I always thought more highly of former McNeese MB Nicole Bowden than others. Now that Bowden has finished playing, I’ll shift my underrated MB tag to Donald.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Key Losses: None, really.
Impact of Losses: Minimal. There are four players that were on the roster at this time last year that currently are not. They lose Senior Jessica Korda along with Jordan Flemmer. MB Tina Chivas is no longer an Islander and public address announcers everywhere favorite Isabella Arcidiacono (say it five times fast) is also gone. I thought Arcidiacono was going to be a star, but oh, well.
Key Returners: (6 plus?) L Micah Nolan (fairly underrated), OH Shannon Hullum, MB Brooke Alverson, OH Brianna Brink, S Logen Borque DS Renee Ramirez. TAMUCC also played OH Sarah Sanchez and DS Shelby Coppedge substantially last year and they also return.
New: Eight freshman including one redshirt and two transfers. Good gracious!
Outlook: I have no idea. Some folks I’ve talked to are actually kind of high on TAMUCC this year – believing that Graystone has been at the helm long enough now to see some big strides take place in 2012. I think I’ll hold off judgment on them. They are actually one of the teams I am watching carefully in the early going because I am just not sure what to make of the Islanders. I’ve seen Micah Nolan play some serious libero and as readers know.. back row defense is my favorite part of the game as a fan.

Stephen F. Austin
Key Losses: MC Bottles, Melissa Miksch
Impact of Losses: Minimal to Moderate. Bottles is clearly hard to replace since her offense from the MB position was so strong. Sabrina Burns is ready to take over leadership in the middle and the combination of redshirt freshman Jacque Allen and true freshman Cara Leslie will bridge some (but, not all) of the gap. I think Randall, if healthy, can cover the loss of Miksch as a six rotation L2. The ‘Jacks could certainly have used Taylor Gross (transfer to UTA), but hopefully Tori Bates exceeds her freshman offensive output from a year ago. Plus, Bates can play defense, too.
Key Returners: (5) MB Sabrina Burns, L Maddie Hanlan, S Paige Holland, RS Jill Ivy, OH Katzy Randall. SFA also returns Janet Hill who while wasn’t overly key in 2011, looks to be integral on the back row plans for 2012.
New: Seven freshmen including one redshirt plus one transfer.
Outlook: Mostly sunny with a chance of occasional showers. A leap to the top tier isn’t probable. One can hope – a true fan always does – but a team that is trying to reclaim its relevance must get to .500 first. We were close last year and we should be there or a tick above in 2012. A mid-level seed is attainable – could be higher if Lamar and Sam Houston disappoint. Could be lower if Northwestern State takes a big leap and teams like Nicholls and TAMUCC turn out to be more than tournament filler.


Next up for the weekend: Interview with UTPA Head Coach & former SFA Assistant Brian Yale.

Should We Get Used to Playing HBU?

Wednesday at 6:30, SFA Volleyball will attempt to do something that no other Southland Conference school has done this year: Beat Houston Baptist, a member of the quite defunct Great West Conference, in volleyball. To date, HBU has played (in order) Lamar, UTSA, Sam Houston, Texas State, Northwestern State, Southeastern Louisiana, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Seven SLC schools. They've won every time. By now, it is no secret to fans of schools in the Southland Conference that Texas State, UTSA and UTA are headed for the WAC. One reason I failed to do a "conference preview" article or interview any of Texas State or UTA's players when they came through is that they will be gone next year. No disrespect.. I just figure I should concentrate efforts on schools SFA fans will actually see in conference play again in the future. Which brings us to HBU. Could this team be a candidate for SLC membership? The SLC currently has 9 schools on the books for 2012-2013. One issue is whether the conference would be happy with 10 members or if it would seek to replace all three of the schools who have left and get back to 12. The idea of going to 10 seems more plausible in the short term. What I am going to do here is just discuss possibilities. I have no inside information, nor do I expect to ever have such information. There are articles out there in the "cloud" and websites that anyone can go to and check to read up on this stuff. Some of what is presented here is motivated from collegesportsinfo.com. Some people like that site, others think it is hogwash. As always, read and think for yourself on stuff like that. Some of the rest of what I write here is from various conversations I've had here and there and other articles I have read in the last year. For the most part, when the Southland does look to expand/replace it has two choices: 1) Invite schools from similarly reputable conferences that are Division I, but are open to moving or 2) look to Division II schools looking to upgrade to Division I. Of course, a good chunk of this is driven by football. If the SLC could add a school that has a football presence, then in a lot of ways, this would be considered positive. Let's take a look at possible conferences & teams that deserve a mention as possible additions to the SLC. There is clearly some opinion spinning in here, so do your own research to see if my suggestions are reasonable or not. I don't mean to imply that my list of schools here is exhaustive, but I think it is close. First, one conference that has had its issues is the Great West. Many of this conferences' schools have recently left to join other conferences or in the process of leaving. The conference currently has only five schools competing in football and six in volleyball, but some of those schools are leaving. The six volleyball schools are geographically all over the map: HBU, North Dakota, Utah Valley, UT-Pan American, New Jersey Institute of Technology & Chicago State. Wow. Just Wow. What a mess. A lot of people feel that any of those teams that got an invite from a larger, more stable conference would likely jump ship and join up with another group. Reading the "HBU Football Plan" just screams "Southland" and I know that UTPA has been a school discussed before when SLC expansion comes up. Clearly, of the teams in the Great West, the two from Texas are the two most logical fits. My thoughts are that if you want to invite one of the two and get to 10 schools, then HBU is your pick. Purely for the Houston presence and not to be geographically biasing... but, Edinburg, TX is just a long, long way from... well.... anywhere. What about other DI schools from more stable conferences, but still might consider leaving? One school I have always wished could be sucked in is Louisiana Tech. Ain't gonna happen. They have always been really geographically challenged by being a member of the WAC, but teams don't tend to move to conferences that they would see as decreasing visibility. I doubt LaTech would consider a move to the Southland an upgrade when it is clear schools like UTSA, Texas State and UTA are doing the opposite. Hey, did you know that LaTech WAS in Southland at one point? They were members from 1971 until1987. About a month ago, a report was put out via Twitter that Oral Roberts University, a member of the Summit League, was in contact with the Southland regarding a possible invitation. I have not been able to confirm or deny the validity of such a conversation, but the Summit League and the Sun Belt are two conferences similar enough to the Southland in terms of overall footprint that it makes sense to see what schools from these conferences could be targets. Other than Oral Roberts, a school of less than 3500 located in Tulsa, OK, the only other Summit League school that even looks intriguing to me is UMKC (Univ. of Missouri at Kansas City), if only for the presence of the league in a larger city. That's a long way from our current schools, though. As far as the Sun Belt, a conference that former Southland member Louisiana-Monroe joined in 2005, the only school that does not have football is Arkansas-Little Rock (UALR). Here's the thing I like about UALR: They are about the same size as SFA and some other Southland schools. They have right at 13,000 students. It is obvious that they would be a perfect travel partner for UCA if they were in the Southland. The Sun Belt appears to be pretty stable as there tends to be less realignment talks out of that conference than others. But, despite this, the conference does house some familiar names. North Texas, ULM, UL-Lafayette, and Arkansas State are all former Southland Conference members. Of course, for some of those schools that was a LONG time ago. Troy also competed in the SLC as a football school for some years. They are our nearest "reasonable" geographic member conference, but it is not as though those schools are just itching to leave, and I don't know that the Southland would have anything better to offer them than what they currently have in the Sun Belt. So, it looks to me that HBU, UTPA, Oral Roberts and UALR are the four Division I schools in neighboring conferences that either make some sense or have been rumored to be interested. The instability of the Great West points to HBU in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if they became a part of the SLC. That being said, I think Oral Roberts or UALR would be an overall better "get" for the conference. Now, there are Division II schools out there that may look to make the leap to Division I. Some schools in the Southland locale that have at least been mentioned as thinking of making the upgrade athletically are: Tarelton State, West Texas A&M, North Alabama (that's a stretch to say they are in Southland area), Incarnate Word, Delta State (in Mississippi, same comment at UNA), Central Oklahoma and Oklahoma City University. Some of these schools belong to the DII Lone Star Conference and some others belong to the DII Gulf South Conference. Others belong to neither of those. While I am sure that some of these are great places, I think we'd all admit that losing Texas State and UTSA and replacing them with two of these schools would be a tough pill to swallow. It'd be best to invite schools that already have Division I athletics and are looking to upgrade or slide across conferences for geographical reasons. So, in the end, I think we might should get used to seeing HBU in town. I think they are a reasonable fit for the Southland. They sure have feasted on SLC Volleyball this year. I'd prefer UALR among all mentioned here, I think. The size of the school appeals to me on several levels. Maybe we could bring them in with the promise that they'd eventually add football. HBU and Oral Roberts are really small campuses. Nicholls is the smallest school in the Southland and they are roughly twice as big in terms of enrollment as HBU and Oral Roberts. There is one other thing to think about. What about the Southland Conference Volleyball Tournament with only nine or ten teams in the conference? What about the conference schedule? It seems to me that with nine teams, you might could just abort the "East/West" idea and go back to lumping everyone in one pot and play each other twice. That would create 16 conference games, just like we have now. Even if you had 10 teams, you might could do this and just play 18 conference games rather than 16. You know, I get the feeling that - at least in terms of volleyball - not many people like the "East/West" split standings thing. Finally, in terms of the end-of-the-year tournament, I think it only makes sense to drop it to six teams, with the top two obtaining byes. Day One of the tournament could be Seed 3 vs. Seed 6 and Seed 4 vs. Seed 5. Then Seed 1 could play the winner of 4/5 and Seed 2 could play the winner of 3/6 on Day 2. The championship would still be on Day 3. It doesn't seem reasonable to have an eight team tournament with only 9 or 10 teams in the conference.

First Reaction to UTSA and Texas State Leaving the Conference

This is usually about the time where I post a preview of an upcoming conference opponent, but given today's news of Texas State and UTSA leaving the Southland to join the WAC, I decided to go a different route. I hope the good people at McNeese will forgive me. I will encourage all that are reading to show up at Johnson Coliseum tomorrow night at 7 PM for our penultimate match of the year.

I haven't had time to talk with many people yet about the Texas State/UTSA situation, so I'm sure my final opinion on this subject will be reached after additional discussion with others. However, blogs are made for sharing "in the moment" opinions as well as more cautioned and reasoned pieces. So, I admit this is my "first take" and so I hope these opinions won't be villanized given that confession.

My overall thought is that the move doesn't really affect the conference that much. It has been pointed out by several people that I did get a chance to talk to tonight that the Southland just gained Lamar in football and will only lose Texas State in football, since UTSA isn't currently playing pigskin in the SLC. Since "football is king", the effect on other sports will be trumped by the relatively neutral impact on football.

At least for now, I tend to agree with that.

The Southland will still have 10 members. For that reason, my immediate thought is that the conference should do nothing in response to Texas State and UTSA leaving.

If the conference went looking for replacements, there is some chance that we could woo some school athletically comparable to the 10 that remain or even upgrade. I think this chance is slim. What is more likely is that replacements would come from schools who currently compete in lesser conferences, are currently independent, or are looking to upgrade to DI. Now, you could get a gem from one of those places, but I don't think so. Again - siding with probability, I think the most likely thing is that if such schools were invited to join the conference, the result would be an overall downgrade in reputation.

So.. maybe the most prudent action is to be idle and continue, at least temporarily, as a 10 team conference. Of course, this assumes that none of these 10 schools plans in the near future to leave as well. Which - is at least an issue worth pondering, right? Is there going to be any form of chain reaction? I have no evidence that there will be, but it is a natural thought when schools leave conferences. It is well known that budget issues in Louisiana have spawned all sorts of rumours about Nicholls and/or Southeastern Louisiana not being long term viable as DI athletic programs anymore. This may only be rumor and have little actual substance, but I'd be lying if I didn't mention that I hear such talk around the conference many times a year.

What could the ramifications be for our sport - volleyball? The answer is so unbelievably obvious that it all but guarantees this won't be done: Just create a "Texas Division" - which now functions as the West comprised of SFA, Lamar, UTA, TAMUCC and SHSU. The other division - the East or "Louisiana/Arkansas" division could be NWLA, SELA, McNeese, Nicholls, and UCA.

It would seem a little silly to continue with an 8 team tournament with only 10 teams in conference. So, why not have a six team tournament where the winner of the two divisions get byes and the other top four teams are seeded three through six. For revenue purposes, we could still play the tournament over three days having #3 play #6 and #4 play #5 on Day 1 (rather than having four games like we do now). Then on Day 2, we'd have two games and then a championship on the final day.

From a volleyball perspective, Texas State and SFA have had many the rivalry game in recent years. Despite our current down year, that historical battle will be missed, I think. UTSA is having a good year in 2010 and they can use that as a launch toward moving to the WAC in two years. UTSA Volleyball over the last few years has been an average club, so their impact of leaving isn't quite the same as Texas State leaving - in terms of volleyball reputation,that is.

Of course, Texas State and UTSA become two obvious choices for non-conference games, because the conference schedule would more than likely be shortened if we go forward with just 10 teams. (Edit after initial post: ...or could we play everyone twice and the conference season expanded from 16 to 18 games? Travel costs probably shoot that down)

For now, I think my first reaction to today's news is neutral in terms of across-the-board impact, but slightly negative in terms of the effect on Southland Conference Volleyball. If I had to pick two teams to leave the conference without downgrading the conference's position in volleyball, these would not be the two I'd pick.