The Southland Conference Has Lost Its Serving Mind!

I'm a statistician. It's what I do. 

This post is short and sweet.  I've covered this topic before, so I won't belabor it.  I think there are players that rack up a ton of aces, but this is offset - and then some - by boat loads of errors.  I think many people see the aces totals and believe this helps their teams.  I disagree.

If a player has 47 aces and 77 service errors, then you have to demonstrate to me 30 non-ace definitive times that their serve has manifested itself in a point immediately following the serve without rally JUST TO BREAK EVEN.  Once these 30 times have been demonstrated, this server has had the same impact on scoring as someone who has zero aces and zero service errors, or 20 service aces and 20 service errors.  This assumes, of course, that these last two servers NEVER had situations where their serves resulted in non-ace, yet immediate scoring opportunities for their team (which probably is not true and thus makes the 47 ace, 77 error server still look less valuable than them).

Think about what has been written above.  Really think about it.  We glorify aces, but turn our back on a mountain of errors.  Have we lost our minds?

Now, here is a graph of the Top 40 players in NCAA Division I volleyball in aces.   The horizontal  axis is aces and the vertical axis is service errors.  Can you spot the outlier?  Hint:  47 aces, 77 errors.

Look at where the bulk of the data lies and then consider this:  If you remove the outlier, there are a total of 1100 aces represented and 1152 service errors- two values that are roughly the same when considering there are 40 players represented.  

In fact, just to add a little statistical flavor to this, if you calculate the correlation between aces and errors WITHOUT the outlier, you get a correlation coefficient of r =.17. For the nerds among us, the p-value for that being significantly different than zero is .30.  So, simply speaking, without the outlier, the above cluster of points is essentially random scatter.

If you re-run the correlation analysis WITH the outlier in the data set, then the correlation coefficient jumps to .54, which is significantly different than zero (p-value now .0005).  Thus, the inclusion of the outlier changes the correlation from being considered statistically zero to statistically non-zero BY ITSELF.  THAT, my friends, is an OUTLIER.

Four of the 40 data points in the above graph belong to Southland Conference players:

Heather Schnars (UCA): 47 aces, 77 errors

Nat Jaeger (NW St): 33 aces, 40 errors

Jessica Wooten (HBU): 29 aces, 21 errors

Kristyn Nicholson (TAMUCC):  25 aces, 41 errors

Nicholson's data point looks slightly out of line with the national trend among ace leaders, but Schnars is the outlier.

Heather Schnars is the reigning Southland Conference Player of the Year.  Heather Schnars is one of the best players to ever play in this conference.

I picked Devaney Wells-Gibson as my player of the year last year in part... I emphasize IN PART... due to this type of analysis.  And, I will reiterate one more time for the record, that I have ZERO qualms with Schnars winning last year.

Heather Schnars leads the nation in aces.  Heather Schnars leads the nation in service errors.

By the way, Northwestern State leads the nation in service errors and UCA is second.

The Southland Conference leads all conferences in total aces.  The Southland Conference leads all conferences in total service errors.

Aggressive serving to the point of being an outlier as mentioned above?  I say it isn't worth it.  And I'd coach the player to stop.  You'll need to provide me with quantitative evidence to the contrary to get me to change my mind.  Don't start telling me anecdotal stories of getting teams out of system here and there.  Service errors give the other team a point 100% of the time they occur.  I want data.

Has anyone else noticed all this?

Libero Swapero

Last night in San Antonio, the fans in the McDermott Convocation Center and those of us viewing online sure got our money's worth.  Well, given it was free, I guess we got way more than our actual money's worth out of the match between SFA and UIW.  There were several story lines and I'll try to scoot through them all at some point in this post, but the libero swap between the 3rd and 4th sets is what I want to focus on.

You will occasionally see teams switch liberos in the middle of the match.  Almost always it is due to poor performance of the original starting libero.  Often in cases such as this,  a team doesn't have a particularly strong libero and if adjustments have to get make in-match because of performance, two girls will switch out and put on new jerseys.  I recall seeing this happen several times in Southland Conference play over the past few years.

That wasn't what happened Thursday night.  What happened Thursday night was a masterful counterpunch to the University of Incarnate Word's strategy.  In the process, it showcased just how deep the back row is of Stephen F. Austin and in particular, just how improved sophomore Lexus Cain is when compared to her already strong showing from last year.

No, Thursday wasn't about back row problems, it was about back row dominance.  Earlier in the year at one of the tournaments we played in, Debbie Humphreys told me right before the match that she had talked to her offense about consistently hitting and serving away from the other team's libero.  This is clearly what was going on last night from UIW's standpoint.  I went back to look if I could dig up the reception numbers, but the StatTracker had been reset for UIW's game vs. Northwestern State tomorrow.  I do specifically remember at one point seeing that Cain had 30 service receptions compared to OJ Olson's 9.  Clearly, Incarnate Word was attempting to avoid Olson and make others pass and dig around her.

On the surface it seems reasonable.  Olson is going to be in the Libero of the Year conversation at the end of the year.  At least one reason I am writing this post is in the hope that some voters will realize after her 12 digs in five sets last night, she should be considered MORE for the award now than before.  Because HER stats don't tell the story. The respect that UIW has for her ability is what does.

The problem with UIW's seemingly reasonable strategy to hit and serve away from Olson has one flaw:  Lexus Cain is really freakin' good.

Knowing this, after SFA lost a marathon third set that saw the 'Jacks negate six straight UIW set points, 28-year savvy veteran coach Debbie Humphreys had Cain move into the Libero spot and Olson switch to support.  Think about it.  Now what?  At this point, UIW is forced to do one of two things:  1) They can stick with their strategy that by now has been both mentally and physically ingrained into their hitters for three sets:  hit opposite the libero if possible.  If they do, Olson may be in better position to dig/pass. Or, 2) go away from the game plan and start hitting at Cain in the libero jersey.  Only problem is, Lexus Cain is good enough to play libero right now for some of the schools on our schedule.

Brilliant.

And, it worked.

After the switch, SFA got the lead at the 4th point of the 4th set and despite UIW playing close, never relinquished it and won to tie up the match 2-2.  Then, in the decisive 5th set, the Ladyjacks jumped way out to a 10-4 lead only to see a feisty Cardinal team scratch all the way back before SFA finally closed out the match.

Give credit to Incarnate Word.  They played well, and much like McNeese the week before, gave SFA all they could handle.  Downright scary at times.  Freshman Autumn Lockley is a great complement to the underrated Angelique Vidaurri and the much improved Bryaunea Hall.  But, when you've got TWO stellar back row players like Olson and Cain, SFA really doesn't lose much by switching the two of their roles. At that point, UIW was forced to either stick with the main gain plan or come up with their own adjustments.  In the end, going away from Olson led only to SFA having FIVE girls in double-digit digs. Everyone had Olson's back and it was beautiful to watch.

Now, I realize that UIW could have easily won that match and if they had, I probably wouldn't be writing this.  But hey, when changes work, they make coaching staffs and teams look like geniuses and I haven't been able to get the whole libero switcheroo out of my mind all day today.  It was just awesome to see that move pay off and see the 'Jacks win a very emotional five set thriller.

We've already mentioned the amazing third set that went to 31-29. There's a decent chance that will be the longest set SFA plays this year.  Reflecting on that set, and then reading Humphreys game wrap quote that "there are definitely some things we have to improve on" leads to finishing this post with a two-up, two-down approach to get you to think on some of what she might be referring to. 

Two Down:

SFA has GOT to get off to better starts.  We are 11-8 on the year, but just 8-11 in first sets.  Too often, an opponent has come out of the gate firing on us and put us back on our heels.  We never lead in Set 1 and found ourselves down by as many as eight against UIW.  Again, credit the Cardinals for a well-played set, but the 'Jacks need to be ready to roll from Serve 1.

Second, these leads!  We have to hold them when we get them, right?  I guarantee you Humphreys was impressed with the fight displayed by the team in losing Set 3 (that's actually one of the Ups below), but hey.. we were ahead 18-12 in that set!  It shouldn't have gone to 31!  After the score was 18-12, UIW scored 10 of the next 11 points.  That can't happen.  I've already mentioned we were up 10-4 in Set 5 and that evaporated as well.  So, look for SFA to improve upon sealing the deal when they are up five, six, seven points late in sets.

Two Up:

Say it with me:  Abigail P. McIntyre.  Actually, her middle initial isn't P.  At least, I don't think so.  And, well, I don't even know if her birth name is Abigail either, but it sounds cool. My point?  We are watching McIntyre flourish into a much better all around player here in Year 2.  She was amazing last night.  Are you kidding me?  Almost a triple-double?  14 kills, 12 digs, 7 blocks and 3 aces.  Yeah, that's good.

Second, I love the team "fight".  No backing down.  I asked Humphreys after the five-set comeback against Tulsa if that was a match that they could look back on if they got down during SLC play to remind themselves that they could scratch back.  Just call me Prophet Blogger.  No, wait.  That sounds stupid.  Abigail P. McIntyre sounds better.  But, I digress.  The point is that in the Tulsa match, and others, the team has developed some edginess and resiliency.

I like it.  I like it, I tell ya.

Oh, and one last thing.. don't mess with our back row.

#BackRow

Just ROLL With It: The Upward Trend of Tori Bates

You can watch all the 2015 Senior Interviews By Clicking HERE

Four years ago at this time, Tori Bates was a few short months away from graduating from the largest high school in Texas.  Rather than follow suit and launch off to a mega-campus like the ones in Austin or College Station, Tori made her way to Nacogdoches and began a new four year trek - this time in Ladyjack purple.  Now, to be sure, Bates' journey at SFA has had its pinnacles and valleys.  When it is all said and done at the end of the 2015 season,  she won't be in position to crack any all-time Top 10 lists or sit atop any leader boards.  But, it'd be hard to argue that the 'Jacks success over the last several years doesn't have some deep roots in what Tori Bates has been able to accomplish.

Out of the gate in her freshman year of 2012, Tori was as central a player to the offense as SFA had.  Think about all the exciting Freshmen we have now - Coleman, Hanna, Schade  -  and then realize this: They've already sat more during their freshman year in pre-SLC games than Bates sat her entire first campaign.  You can count on one hand the number of sets that Bates didn't start as a true freshman. Of course, that's a super rare accomplishment in and of itself, but the Honorable Mention All-SLC award at the end of 2012 really put a cap on it.

Coming into 2013 expectations were high.   As the season wore on, however, SFA had a lot of issues and most of them related to injuries.  The team staggered to a 16-16 finish and were below .500 in SLC play.  Emotions ran in conflicting directions and while some of us armchair quarterbacks sat around and tried to analyze things to death, the simple truth was that the team never really could get its core group on the floor  and we had suffered through a season of never being able to show what we could do. 

During that Sophomore season, Tori missed virtually all of the non-conference schedule with injuries.  She started out the season in our first tournament, but by the time the team was ready for the home opener against Louisiana Tech, Bates' just couldn't go.  Many will remember the crushing scene of Tori in agony right before first serve having hurt her back in warm-ups.  She literally had to be carried from the court and you could feel the air in Shelton Gym get tight around your throat.  But, Bates played well upon her return during the conference slate.  She hit at a clip that left her second to only Jill Ivy in kills per set on the club in what was otherwise a year the 'Jacks would have to bury.  Still, the promise was there.  Bates had improved her hitting percentage from her first year and scored more total points per set while in action.

Then, 2014 happened.  Magic.  While at a tournament at Rice, Debbie Humphreys made what I personally consider the defining decision of the entire year.  Many will point to SFA's salvage comeback against ULM in five sets at home as the swing point to 2015.  But for me, the tide turned for good on September 20, 2014 - one year and one day ago from the time of this writing - when Bates got inserted against the Owls in the second set.

For the matches immediately prior to this one, Bates had been resting.  The 'Jacks were trying to ease her along to conference play remembering that she had contributed the year before down the stretch.  Plus, the team wanted to see what it had in freshman hitters Abby McIntyre and Kelsi Bartlett.  McIntyre struggled in Set 1 and Bates came in and got four kills in Set 2.  Then, in the last two sets of the match, a fire gets lit.  Now, we lost.  But, go look at the box score and see what happens.  No, forget that, I'll make it easy on you.  It reads basically like this:

Kill by Bates, Tori (assisted by Holland, Paige)

Kill by Ivy, Jill (assisted by Holland, Paige

Kill by Bates, Tori (assisted by Holland, Paige)

Kill by Ivy, Jill (assisted by Holland, Paige)

Kill by Bates, Tori (assisted by Holland, Paige)

You get my drift.  Throw in a Jacque Allen kill in there every once in a while if you got bored.  This was it.  This was the combination.  Humphreys' knew it.  The players knew.  Shoot, my little measly volleyball mind knew it.  I drove home from Houston that afternoon realizing that right there before SLC play, we had figured it out, despite the loss.  Sure enough, Bates and company go on a roll and well, you have the T-shirt that says 16-0 to tell how  that story played out.

Early in conference play, Tori put on a clinic at Corpus Christi and in Houston against HBU.  In arguably the best attacking game of her entire career, Bates tallied 14 kills (she had 14 in the Rice Magic Match, too) on only 26 swings.  ZERO attack errors.  Two days later, Bates followed that effort up with 11 kills on 22 attacks.  Bates was there when we needed her at the end, too.  In the season ending match against Northwestern State in the SLC Tournament, go look who led the team in kills.  Once again, I'll save you the homework.  Thirteen kills for Jill Ivy.  Thirteen kills for Tori Bates.

Sure Bates has been hurt at times and her career path didn't skyrocket like it looked it might at the end of 2012.  But, Tori can bring it.  And she's shown that early in 2015.  At times during the last four years when things haven't gone right, various folks - mostly people in opposing gyms - would begin to drag Bates' name into conversations to assign cause for an SFA stumble here and there.  We'd talk and then after a few minutes the person chatting with me would say "You defend her a lot... you must particularly be a Tori Bates fan or something."  Well, those that have read in this space over the years know that I'm not an SFA apologist.  If anything, at times, I've painfully called it like I've seen it.  But if you want to call me a Tori Bates fan?  Then fine, guilty as charged.

Maybe the reason why I look past Bates shortcomings faster than many is that for years I've waited for SFA to suit up a big gun left side hitter. Humphreys and I have had that conversation too many times. That said, almost completely, Humphreys has been proven right and 2014 is the prime example.  It wasn't that SFA needed a left side per se, it was that we needed a dominating hitter on the pin - and Ivy was that on the right.  Still, I've dreamed of the player that can destroy the conventional 4-set over and over and over and over from the left side.  Emma Ridley (TAMUCC).  Heather Schnars (UCA).  Carli Kolbe and Devaney Wells-Gibson (why do they always have to be at Sam?)

In 2012, when Bates was a freshman, I saw a flash of this dominance and it's stuck in my brain.  But actually, trying to go to "pound town" on the left pin over and over like she did as a freshman isn't what has made Bates successful.  In fact, in 2012 when her main ideas were thundering line and crossing shots she hit .145.  Since then?  .174 in 2013 and .187 in 2014.  Coming into this weekend in Waco, she was hitting .208.  That upward trend isn't due to trying to cram stuff, its due to smarts.  Bates has as almost exquisite roll shot to the middle of the court.  She's developed much more savvy and variety to how she tries to get balls to the floor.

Those who pay attention across the conference still know her name. That's evidenced by the 2015 pre-season All-SLC nod.  Here's hoping for a healthy and productive 2015 from Tori Bates. So far, so good. Finally, character matters too.  And Tori has it in spades.  Check out the interview where she explains why she wears "28". 

She's one that will probably stick with me well after she's gone.  But let's not say goodbye yet.  There is plenty of work left to be done!