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The Service Line Doesn’t Know the Difference Between a Power 4 & a Mid-Major

The 2025 Stephen F. Austin volleyball season has had its fair share of roller coaster emotions regarding just how far our club could take their talents. I’ll admit it:  There were times this season where I could see us here in the NCAA Tournament. There were times when I wasn’t even thinking of it as a realistic possibility. But one aspect of Ladyjack Volleyball that was on display both early and late in the Fall (only now has it turned to winter in East Texas) has been the ‘Jacks performance at the service stripe.

One of the best wins of the season came early against now RPI #45 Texas State. When I got back to Nacogdoches after that trip to San Antonio, folks asked me my first impressions of live game action and what it was that propelled us to a key win over the Bobcats. The response was easy:  We served them off the floor. Indeed, in Match #2 of the year SFA posted 14 aces – what would go on to be a season high – in a dominant display of controlling an entire match by first contact. It didn’t stop there as SFA tallied 11 match aces in a four-set loss against Bowling Green and then a few weeks later tallied 11 more in a four-set win down in Corpus Christi. Southeastern Louisiana came to town and got 11 aces thrown down on them in just three sets in a commanding midseason win over a team that had given SFA trouble in recent years. In the last two rounds of the Southland Conference Tournament, SFA posted an average of two aces per set in victories over UIW and UTRGV.

All told, SFA’s first ace against TCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament will be their 200^th of the season. SFA fans know about #InLikeFlynn by now. The hashtag that I created off the cuff in Jayden Flynn’s inaugural season went on to spawn fashion wear bearing the phrase. Flynn comes into the NCAA Tournament sixth all time at SFA in career aces with 159, with 26 of those coming this season. One of the big additions to the ‘Jacks serving core though is sophomore Katherine Holtman. Placed into the teams serving rotation midway through last season, Kat already has 50 career aces and leads the team this year with 38. Many of those coming from her laser beam serve that scorches the top of the tape as it heads straight for the end line causing confusion for oncoming passers. Second setter Zoe Gun finished third in the Southland Conference in aces per set and has found the floor 33 times on her serves this season. Libero Caroline Kahle has posted a career best 28 aces and the ever-steady Cam Hill has posted her third straight season of 20+ service winners. That’s five of the ‘Jacks typical six servers as we don’t tend to sub in a serving specialist except in well… really specially special specialist situations. When you consider that the final server in the typical rotation is the outside hitter opposite Hill and that’s been either Kennedy Jones or Illana DeAssis – who have 30 aces between them – you can see why the SFA total ace tally is so high.

It's one thing to amass 199 service aces in a season – a total that is currently 39^th best in the NCAA Division 1 ranks. It’s a compete OTHER THING to not get aced by your opponents. In many ways, SFA has excelled in not getting aced more so than actually tallying aces themselves. In fact, the Ladyjacks are 11^th in the country in “Opponent Aces” having allowed only a stingy 97 aces in 108 sets. The math is easy (you knew there would be math): SFA averages 1.84 aces per set while allowing only 0.90 aces per set from their opponents. That’s nearly a full point (1.84 – 0.90 = 0.94 points) per set just on the differential between team aces and opponent aces.

Early in the season, I began to notice the gap between our team aces and opponent aces growing. So, as always, research began. Thanks to the statistical work over at evollve.net, I was able back in October to create the first edition of what I’ve been calling “Ace Differential” or just “Ace Diff” for short, only because it sounds cool. Ace Diff is a simple stat. There is nothing complicated about it, but I guess that’s the point. Volleyball has some pretty elementary categories for statistics:  kills, attacks, blocks, digs, errors – they are all easy to define and keep track of. So, Ace Diff fits right in. Ace Diff is just Team Aces – Opponent Aces.

Now, here’s the thing:  No one keeps track of it. Like, officially.. in print and stuff.

After creating the Ace Diff leaderboard one night late in a hotel lobby while on the road in Louisiana I thought to myself – well, surely I can go out to the NCAA website and confirm my work because this a really simple stat and I’ve just duplicated something that is being tracked from a national source and I can check my list.  Nope. Not there. Then, I went back to evollve and started playing around with all of its features for sorting and editing volleyball numbers. Surely it was just called something else like Aces Margin or Net Aces or something and I’d find it and could verify that I had made the leaderboard correctly. Nope. Nothing.

So, after more internet searching and not finding anyone that catalogued this simple metric I did what I do every week during volleyball season and began texting SFA Volleyball sports information director Amanda Paver frantically saying “hey, you ever seen this thing ‘ace diff’ anywhere”? From that moment on, we’ve been tracking it and I’m proud to tell you that

SFA is 6^th in the Country in Ace Differential 

Going into the NCAA Tournament, here is the (National Debut of?) Division 1 Leaderboard For Ace Differential:

1. Creighton +143 (Holy Crap!)

2. UConn +117

3. Miami (FL) +116

4. Stanford +111

5. Toledo +105

6. SFA +102

7. Pepperdine (+98)

8. St. Thomas (MN) +89

9. Howard +86

10. American +82

What is interesting about that list, other than SFA being so darn high on it, is that seven of the 10 teams on that leaderboard are in the NCAA Tournament. Plus, Pepperdine just missed an at-large bid. In addition, UConn RPI’s in the Top 75, so Howard, who plays in the very volleyball weak MEAC, is really the only outlier. Clearly, there is some measure of relationship, as you’d expect, among Ace Differential and overall team quality.

Now, sure, let’s acknowledge the obvious, strength of schedule is a lurking variable here, but not as much as you might think. Again, Howard is the only outlier as they are the only team on that list with a strength of schedule in the lower half of all Division 1 programs. The overall median strength of schedule for those Top 10 Ace Diff teams clocks in at 92. For perspective, there are 348 D1 Volleyball programs. And for those interested, SFA’s strength of schedule rating is currently 122^nd (SOSPct Rank, Figstats) That mark is affected greatly by the bottom half of the Southland Conference, but we aren’t here to discuss that today.

So, what then? The issue here is that we’ve told the same story in another way that you’ve heard many times before. Serving is the great equalizer. The service line doesn’t know the difference between a power 4 team from the Big 12 or SEC or a team from a mid-major conference like the Southland or the Colonial. Serving can neutralize a team’s physical differences, even its potential athleticism. We’ve all heard it a million times:  the name of the game is first contact – serve and serve receive.

Well, if you are sixth in the country in Ace Diff, 11^th in the nation in opponent aces and 39^th in the nation in team service aces, then you are good at first contact. Bottom line (or, close to it): If SFA executes serve and serve receive at an incredibly high level then we might just give a Power 4 school some measure of trouble.

So, will we?

Let’s see. Keep your eyes on the service line. The difference between a ‘Jacks first round win – which would be our first since 2006 – and a tournament loss at the hands of another Power 4 school, may very well be Ace Diff.

Links for All Interviews Done at the 2025 Southland Conference Tournament

 This post will maintain a running list of links to interviews done at the 2025 Southland Conference Tournament.  This year's tournament is in Commerce, Texas and hosted by East Texas A&M.  Here is a link to my complete SoundCloud historical respository.  The most recent interviews appear at the top of the page.

Sunday, November 23 (Post Match Interviews with SFA)

Izabella Ortiz, MB

Jayden Flynn, S

Camryn Hill, OH [All-Tournament Team]

Katherine Holtman, RS

Caroline Kahle, L [All Tournament Team]

Debbie Humphreys, Head Coach

Illana DeAssis, OH [All Tournament Team, MVP]

Saturday, November 22:  Post-Match Interviews (Semifinal Round)

Jordan Henderson, MB (SFA)

Camryn Hill, OH (SFA)

Julianna Bryant, MB (UTRGV)

Celianiz Cabranes, L (UTRGV)

Friday, November 21: Post-Match Interviews (Quarterfinal Round)

Illana DeAssis, OH (SFA)

Debbie Humphreys, Head Coach (SFA)

Calissa Allison, S (UIW)

Gabby Ording, Head Coach (UIW)

Dimitra Nanou, OH (UTRGV)

Todd Lowery, Head Coach (UTRGV)

Tatum Mason, RS (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)

Steve Greene, Head Coach (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)

Thursday, November 20 (Practice Day)

Allana Archie, 2nd Team All-Conference (HCU)

Setter of the Year Isabella Costantini (UTRGV)

Freshman of the Year Dimitra Nanou (UTRGV)

Newcomer of the Year Martina Franco (UTRGV)

Lamar Head Coach Ariel Apolinario (LU)

Maja Malinowska, 1st Team All-Conference, (Lamar)

Kyla Malone, 1st Team All-Conference (UIW)

Gracie Campbell, 1st Team All-Conference (East Texas A&M) 

Camryn Hill, 1st Team All-Conference (Stephen F. Austin)

Katherine Holtman, 1st Team All-Conference (Stephen F. Austin)

Wednesday, November 19: (Prior to Practice Day)

Player of the Year Krya McKelvey (Southeastern La.)

India Bennett, 1st Team All Conference (Southeastern La.)

Alexis Logarbo, 2nd Team All Conference & HC Lee McBride (Southeastern La.)

Libero of the Year Brooklyn Jaeger (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)

Virginia Van der Werff, 1st Team All Conference & HC Steve Greene (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)

13th Annual SFA VolleyBlog All-SLC Teams

 It is time once again for the Annual SFAVolleyBlog All Conference Teams! A lot of this post is recycled from year to year, but if you take the time to read here, then please make sure you refresh yourself with my methodology and where I tend to align and diverge from the way that the conference creates its official lists.

 Continuing the Changes

 Last year I wrote that I had made decision to dovetail this post into one that mimics the conference structure for the first time. We’ll continue that into 2025.

 This is the 15th year (13 in SLC, twice in WAC) I have done this exercise, and I have made repeated arguments for creating actual teams. Typically, I would pick a first, second and third team that each had minimum positional requirements so that, for instance, the "first team" was actually a playable team on the court. I've tried to make justifications for why I thought this was best in the past and I still believe in those arguments. However, over the years I've seen just how many different ways this can be done and how virtually every method has its pros and cons.

 

Similarities and Differences to How the Conference Makes Official Lists

 Let me explain the similarities and differences in my methods and those that you will see that generate the official lists later in the week:

 First, coaches nominate a list of players. I find this totally unnecessary and this is one place where I have chosen continually not to yield. What this means is that the pool of players that can receive official votes is dictated entirely by the coaches themselves. Sorry, coaches... that's too much power and it can occasionally be abused. Here at SFA VolleyBlog, the player universe that we can choose from is all rosters on all teams. To me, I see the coaches nominating players as a MAJOR flaw in their process.

 That's basically the only main difference in how these picks will be made, because now what happens is that the coaches rank 21 players from the submitted nominees and the votes are tallied up. The top 14 vote getters receive first team honor and the next seven are awarded second team. A coach cannot vote for their own players. From these votes the top vote getter at freshman, setter, libero, and newcomer are determined and given those special awards. A coach of the year is chosen and of course, the top vote getter overall is the player of the year. Each school submits one list which is meant to be a representation of both that school's coach and sports information director.

 I'll make a 14/7 pair of lists like mentioned above and I'll also throw in a few "just missed" athletes because honoring players is good and I wish that the conference had an "honorable mention" list. Below is a disclaimer section (this is important), my lists, a statistical breakdown of "stat pros" and "stat lows" and then my overall methodology for full transparency.

The "stat pros/lows" is something that I started while doing this in the WAC because when people would ask me why I made certain choices I was almost always answering those questions with something from this section. So, I decided to start publishing those statistical rankings to aid people by getting in my head about these things.

 As the folks here at SFA can testify, I keep spreadsheets of data on every starting player in the conference on my laptop that I use while I call matches. Those spreadsheets include statistical rankings for every key player in the conference and how they compare to other players at their respective positions.

 

Disclaimer Section!

 (Yes, I need this. My history in the Southland dictates this is necessary) This post was published BEFORE the official All-SLC teams were announced by the conference. I do this independently and DO NOT discuss my picks with coaches or representatives from the institutions beforehand (including SFA!!). Believe it or not, but years ago I got accused once or twice of actually influencing the voters because I would publish the lists before the coaches turned their rankings in. I found that claim absurd but started publishing the list the day or two before the league announced the real winners so that the voting would be over or ending. This list was published right before Noon on Tuesday, November 18. The schools had to submit their lists at Noon on that day.

 I have called on ESPN+ or on radio a match involving every team in the league, some multiple times. I have personally called and/or watched each team in the league play entire matches multiple times. Based on what I do for a living, statistical analysis weighs HEAVY in making my picks. But I've been calling collegiate volleyball for a dozen years now and so the "eyeball" test is in here too. But just know.. numbers/stats are what will always drive me. 

 

2025 SFA VolleyBlog 1st Team All-SLC (14 players)

Isabella Costantini, UTRGV (S, JR) [Player of the Year]

Kyra McKelvey, Southeastern La. (RS, JR)

Maja Malinowska, Lamar (OH, SO)

Dimitra Nanou, UTRGV (OH, FR) [Freshman of the Year]

India Bennett, Southeastern La. (MB, SR)

Katherine Holtman, SFA (RS, SO)

Martina Franco, UTRGV (OH, SO) [Newcomer of the Year]

Virginia Van Der Werff, AMCC (S, SO)

Calissa Allison, UIW (S/RS, SO)

Tamara Chavez, Nicholls (OH, GR)

Camryn Hill, SFA (OH, SR)

Jayden Flynn, SFA (S, SR)

Brooklyn Jaeger, AMCC (L, SO) [Libero of the Year]

Jordan Henderson, SFA (MB, SO)

 

Stat Pros:

Costantini: 1^st in a/s, 1^st in ace/s, 1^st in b/s for S, 2^nd in assists, 3^rd in k for S, 5-1 setter on co-champion team, 3X SOW

McKelvey: 1^st in k/s and kills for RS, Led SLC in att%, 3^rd in blocks for RS, 4^th in SLC in k/s, 5^th in SLC for pts/s

Malinowska: 1^st in kill and dig/s for OH, 2^nd in k/s in SLC, 2^nd in aces for OH, 6^th in blocks for OH, 2nd in SLC in pts/s

Nanou: 1^st in att% and aces for OH, 5^th in k/s and K for OH

Bennett: 1^st in b/s and blocks for MB, 2^nd in k/s for MB, 4^th in K, 6^th in att% for MB, 3X Defensive POW

Holtman: 4^th in k, k/s and blocks for RS, 5^th in k/s

Franco: 2^nd in att% for OH, 4^th in k/s for OH, top 10 among OH in k/s, k, att%, bl, d/s and aces, 4^th in aces/s in SLC

Van Der Werff: 2^nd in a/s, 1^st in assists, 2^nd in k for S, 5^th in aces/set in SLC, 5X SOW

Allison: 5^th in a/s, unique as S/RS, 1^st in K for S, 1^st in d/s for S/RS

Chavez: 1^st in k/s, 2^nd in K for OH, 4^th in att% for OH, Led SLC in k/s and pts/s

Hill: 5^th in att% for OH, 2^nd in d/s for OH, 3^rd in blocks for OH, 4^th in aces for OH

Flynn: 1^st in a/s for pure 6-2 S, primary S on co-champion team

Jaeger: 2^nd in d/s, 3^rd in dig, T2nd for aces for L

Henderson: 3^rd in b/s in SLC, 4^th in blocks and 7^th in att% for MB.

Stat Lows:

Malinowska: 14^th in att% for OH

Nanou: 18^th in blocks for OH

Hill: 16^th in k/s for OH

 

2025 SFA VolleyBlog 2nd Team All-SLC (7 players)

 

Julianna Bryant, UTRGV (MB, JR)

Alexis Logarbo, Southeastern La (RS, SR)

Aaliyah Snead, UTRGV (MB, JR)

Jade Washington, ETAMU (L, FR)

Kade Thomas, UIW (MB, SR)

Taisha Rhone, Lamar (Pin, JR)

Kyanna Creecy, SFA (MB, JR)

 

Stat Pros:

Bryant: 5^th in bl/s and blocks in SLC

Logarbo: 1^st in blocks for RS, 5^th in att% in SLC

Snead: 4^th in att% for MB, 6^th in block for MB

Washington: Led SLC in d/s, 2^nd in SLC in digs

Thomas: 4^th in att% in SLC, 7^th in b/s for MB

Rhone: Top 10 among pins in all of k/s, att% and blocks

Creecy: 2^nd in b/s in SLC and 3^rd in blocks

 

Stat Lows:

Thomas: 14^th in k/s for MB

Creecy: 21^st in k/s for MB, 17^th in K

 

Coach of the Year: Ariel Apolinario, Lamar

 

The following were under consideration for the final spots:  OH:  Gracie Campbell, ETAMU and Finley Evans, UIW. MB: Vanessa Eregie, UIW, Allana Archie, HCU and Daniella Udegbunam, Lamar. S: Peyton Fadal, HCU. L: Celianiz Cabranes, UTRGV and Gabby Baker, Lamar.

 

Quick Thoughts:

Many of the dominant scorers in the conference this year were on teams that were not among the top seeds in the SLC Tournament. So, this is a fantastic opportunity to recognize the setters among those top teams. This is the main reason I went with Costantini as Player of the Year. UTRGV has many talented players, but without Constantini I don’t think they are 15-1. SFA tends to spread offense around more and so I don’t think they will have the player of the year, but it is time to honor 6-2 setters more and this is why I elevated Flynn to the first team. I think Flynn, Hill and Holtman are really the combination that made SFA go. Although, the more I looked at the numbers, the more I realized SFA’s middles are underrated and deserve the merit here. Originally, I wasn’t so sure how high Henderson would rank, but her performance when compared to the conference middles stands up.

 I really wouldn’t have a problem with McKelvey winning player of the year. She is truly one of my favorite players to watch and that run of items on her “Stat Pros” above is completely convincing.

 Mark it down because you heard it here first:  The “X Factor” for the SLC Tourney later this week:  Martina Franco of UTRGV.

 How good is India Bennett? Those numbers are just ridiculous. Such an easy 1^st Team pick.

One player on 1^st Team and one player on 2^nd team whose numbers really surprised me when I started my analysis and kind of flew under my radar during the season:  Dimitra Nanou of UTRGV and Taisha Rhone of Lamar.

I won’t get into why certain individual players were left off or why those listed as "under consideration" didn’t make my teams. But the general concept is one-dimensionality in categories versus being near the top in several statistical categories.

 

Now, just for fun:  My favorite player to watch on all the non-SFA teams:

UTRGV:  Nadine Zech, OH

AMCC:  Brooklyn Jaeger, L

Southeastern La:  Kyra McKelvey, RS

Lamar:  Alexa Gonzalez, S

UIW: Kyla Malone, RS

HCU:  Peyton Fadal, S

ETAMU: Gracie Campbell, OH

McNeese: Mary-Alice Dohmann, DS/OH

Nicholls: Isabella Padilla, S

UNO: Defne Eciroglu, S

Northwestern St: Jade Longlad, S

 

 Finally, Methodology:

 OH: 40% related to kill stats, 25% related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 25% defense stats, 10% serving stats with adjustments made for 6 vs. 3 rotation usage and observation

 RS: 70% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 30% blocking with slight adjustments made for observation

 MB: 60% blocking metrics, 40% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency with slight adjustments made for observation

 S: assist metrics as they relate to 5-1 vs. 6-2 usage, serving, slight consideration of dig/set, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB

 L: dig/set, serving, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB.

 "Observation" includes all of the following:  notes taken while calling matches, conversations with coaches during year, appearance of leadership and demeanor while on court and on bench while watching/calling matches, decision making, interactions with teammates. All of these things are considered but would not move a particular player up or down more than one or two "slots" within position based on objective statistical measures.

 

Where Did I Leave My Three Points?

By ordinary measures, SFA Volleyball to this point in the year has been successful. While our Futures RPI at this writing sits at 109 and is lower than what it has been at this point in the year in recent seasons, a 16-7 overall record is a solid achievement. Zeroing in on the conference race, SFA controls its own destiny with an 11-1 record with just four matches remaining on the regular season slate. Obviously, SFA has taken care of its necessary business during conference play to this point.

Looking across the league, there appears to be no dominant team in the Southland this season. So, there is every reason to believe that the Ladyjacks’ chances of winning the 2025 Southland Conference Tournament in three weeks is as good as any of our competition. One thing to watch down the stretch is how well the team performs in close sets. To date, this is one area that hasn’t quite gone Stephen. F. Austin’s way. The first time the ‘Jacks repeatedly struggled in close sets was in the teams’ first loss of the year – one that for me still rates as the biggest disappointment – the four set loss at home to Sam Houston. You’ll remember that every set in that match went to extra points and the ‘Jacks dropped Sets 2, 3 and 4 each by the minimum two points.

Just a week after the Sam Houston loss, SFA dropped another four-set match in Chicago to Bowling Green in eerily similar fashion. The ‘Jacks won the first set by the minimum two-point separation and then lost the remaining sets 23-25, 24-26 and 23-25. Flash forward just another week and SFA was swept by UTEP, who is having an outstanding season, and all three sets were extremely close. At that point in the season, the lack of winning close sets had become a point of multiple conversations.

Add it all up and when the non-conference part of our schedule was through, SFA had played 21 sets decided by three or fewer points. Of those 21 sets, the ‘Jacks went 8-13 (.381). Comparing those numbers to 2024, SFA played 21 sets decided by three points or less ALL SEASON and came out with essentially an even split going 10-11. Here, in 2025, the trend of losing close sets has continued into conference play. In eight sets played and decided by either two or three points, the ‘Jacks are just 2-6. Overall, this year our record in sets that tight is an underwhelming 10-19 (.345).

It's easy to take that 10-19 record in close sets and conjecture what might have been if things were more even at 14-15 or 15-14. Redistributing four or five set wins across the season easily could produce an overall season record of 19-4 or even 20-3, which of course, on paper, looks all the more stronger than 16-7. Fans that witnessed the Sam Houston and Bowling Green matches can easily point to those two that could have been flipped. The match against Loyola Chicago (we had match points) and the conference loss to UIW (17-19 in an insane 5^th set) also come to mind as two matches that could have been won had the team been able to find a missing two or three points here and there.

So, where did we leave our two or three points? Where did they go? What explains a 10-19 record in close sets so far?  Should we be thinking of this team as though it is a 20-3 team or is there an assignable cause to our showing in close sets that points to a shortcoming that just may be our undoing? Basically speaking, is this luck or is this real?

The answer is probably a little of both. The “bad luck” theory is at least backed up in one other statistic that is publicly available. This year, fans have heard me talk a little about evollve.net on the broadcasts and in casual conversations. This recommended website tracks some unique volleyball metrics and one of them is a statistic that they have actually named “Luck.” 

They look at the total points that a team has scored and given up and estimate what their season win-loss record should be from those totals. This is called the Pythagorean Expected Win-Loss Percentage. This statistic has actually become popular in other sports as well. For instance, it is readily trackable during the major league baseball season on ESPN’s standings page. The difference between the actual win-loss percentage and the expected Pythagorean percentage is called “Luck” at evollve.net. If your expected winning percentage is higher than actual, you’ve been “unlucky.”  If your expected winning percentage is lower than actual, then you’ve been “lucky.”  According to evollve, SFA’s expected Pythagorean winning percentage is .799, which would put us a little between 18-5 and 19-4. That sounds about right considering all that we’ve chronicled above regarding our close-set snafus.

What is really interesting however, is that evollve tracks this “Luck” concept for all 348 Division 1 schools and at this writing, we are ranked 332^nd in “Luck”. Put another way, we are the 17^th most unlucky school in the nation according to this one particular measure. Take that for what you will.

Now, there are other potential explanations other than simply “SFA has been unlucky in close sets.”  I have my theory on a few of them, and I am positive the coaching staff does as well. It’s not really my desire here to postulate, but instead just to point out something to watch for. At this point in the season, every single match has huge implications. Whether SFA winds up making a too early exit in the Southland Conference tournament, playing, and advancing in the NIVC, or playing and advancing in the NCAA Tournament could very well come down to one or two close sets decided by two or three points.

As you watch and listen to the ‘Jacks in the next month pay close attention to those situations where the set score is 20-18, 22-20, 23-22, etc. When those situations arise, how we close things out may very well dictate our fate.

I’ve got my fingers crossed and high hopes that whether by luck or by skill or both, we can find where we have left our three points.

A Place of Silence Becomes a Place of Joy

 Last Thursday, SFA Volleyball was focused on not looking past the University of New Orleans before the circled date on the calendar versus Southeastern Louisiana emerged a few days later. Personally, I was focused on not looking past all the work on the academic and consulting side of my life before two matches to call and then preparation for the current Louisiana road trip. Deadlines were building up, my wife had slipped and broken her foot while the team was in Corpus Christi the week before, the pile of tests to grade had grown tall and my beloved San Diego Padres had been eliminated from the MLB playoffs.

Currently, we are right smack in the middle of both the volleyball season and the Fall semester. The calendar turning to October signals that life probably won’t begin to slow down until Thanksgiving Break settles in. Among the busyness, the wonderful people I work with on the athletics staff had constructed a set of promotional themed days to generate interest from fans in anticipation of certain matches. One night we gave out team posters, another date celebrated Parent’s Weekend and yet another had a Western theme. But one that resonated with me – 80’s Rock Day – was scheduled to go down last Saturday. We advertised it as “Turn up the volume for a retro blast from the past. The first 100 fans will receive inflatable guitars to rock out in the stands.” 

I weaseled my way into both helping to pick the track list for the songs that would be played before and during the match and (probably wrongfully) convinced a few folks to let me lead a hype promo video for the date. Our volleyball SID and Assistant Director of Communications Amanda Paver had set up a time on Thursday before the UNO match for me to meet with the uber-talented Sarah Williams, our Director of Creative Video to shoot the promo video. Equipped with my giveaway inflatable guitar, my vintage Rush concert T-shirt and my usual bravado behind any mic or camera, I showed up early to the meeting in Shelton Gym with Sarah.

Then something happened.

Alone in Shelton Gym I found myself wandering to center court. I stood there by myself, right about where the “star” that signifies Nacogdoches in the SFA logo was painted on our new Taraflex floor. I took a few deep breaths and let the built-up stress of the aforementioned events and deadlines go. It was a moment of silence.

I could hear the echo of my cough and the shuffle of my shoes radiate through the gym. It was bright and that illumination somehow temporarily washed away the to-do list. My mind quickly changed over to how lucky I am to get to “do this” – to do all of what I am fortunate to do at home and at SFA. I knew later that day it would not be silent in that gym and that our gals – and our opponents – would be moving around on the same spaces where I stood silently taking the whole empty gym atmosphere in.

Have you ever had one of those moments where you just stand still and let silence pour over you and it feels like weight just floats away? The serenity of being in that space, in the center of that floor with the stands idly looking down at me was just a moment for me to recenter myself and if you’ll allow – to count my blessings a bit. It was kind of like a small dream. 

Then, I woke up.

My mind said “Why are you standing out here in the middle of this floor looking like you are doing a commercial for laundry detergent? Twirling all around looking at lights and dreaming fanciful things? Wake up, you big idiot.”

Then, I went and sat down again, almost half embarrassed that I had my little private moment out on the floor. What if someone saw me? I’m sure I looked weird standing there gazing at the ceiling and scoreboards and stands. Oh well, Sarah will be here soon, and we’ll do this hype video.

Sure enough, Amanda texted that Sarah was on her way. Once she arrived, two takes later and we had a crazy video of me yelling about Van Halen and inflatable guitars and rocking out and whatever else I said.

I’ve never been afraid to put myself out there and make myself a target. My reasoning is always – it’s for “them.”  It’s for the team. If it’s ridiculous, who cares? Be willing to make fun of yourself. Amanda texted later in the day and said she cracked up when she watched the recording. I wrote her back and said that I make it a conscious priority to try to have as many days where I am both “serious” and “ridiculous” in adjacent moments. I had at least succeeded in that endeavor while in Shelton Gym filming that promo video.

A few hours later, it was back to serious as Brittany Castledine and I were in full “prepare for battle” mode going over television notes and graphics before the ESPN+ broadcast of the UNO match. The inflatable guitar had been traded for my laptop and the concert T-shirt replaced by a light red long-sleeve button down shirt. The aggressive yelling about “rockin’ with Dokken” had been changed out for less aggressive yelling about how we were going to come on the air with feature player videos. Honestly, I had forgotten about the Cinderella moment on the star at midcourt hours earlier.

But then… in Set 2… “Now into the match for your Ladyjacks, #9, Izabella Ortiz”.

Wait.

Did I hear the public address announcement correct through my headphones? After all, listening to all that Def Leppard and Ozzy Osbourne as a teen (and adult) has left me with some measure of hearing loss. Were my eyes deceiving me here as well? No. They were not. Bella is back. Last year, in November, Bella had a season ending knee injury just weeks before the 2024 Southland Conference Tournament. 

You could feel the energy in that gym. Brittany and I were stunned yet elated. I knew Bella was getting close to returning as she had said as much to me at a practice in Corpus Christi the week before. But I didn’t know that she would play that night. And play she did. It would have been enough if she had just got in the match and successfully ran a few plays and attempted to block a few balls. Instead, an instant impact was made. In her one-and-a-half sets, she knocked down five kills on eight swings without an error. She also chipped in on a stuff block right in front of where Brittany and I were stationed across from the benches. It was glorious.

When the match ended in a quick sweep of the Privateers, it was clear that my post-match interview needed to be with Ortiz – just to get her thoughts on making the long journey back. The team huddled up and listened to Coach Humphreys make her comments about the night’s work. I signed off the broadcast, grabbed my interview microphone out of my backpack, and began to drift over towards the team circle. They talked. I found where Bella was standing. I waited. They prayed. I turned on the interview mic and stood about ten feet behind where Bella had circled up. The team prayer ended, and she turned around after releasing hands with her teammates in the circle.

Then I knew.

Then I knew why earlier in the day I had stood out there by myself and gazed. Then I knew why I had wandered out to that star at center court and thought about blessings and what I “get to do” and experience. The moment became a full circle.

When Bella turned to walk away I was there with the microphone, but also with a hug of support. I, actually we, were standing in the same place I had been hours earlier by myself. At center court – right at the painted star in the SFA logo. I can only assume that she needed that moment of cathartic release. There is no telling all that she must have been thinking in that instant, but we all knew it was the end of a long road back -and the beginning of a new chapter. That hug lasted a while. It had tears. It had smiles.

I was just the lucky one. I was just there. Someone she knew. Someone that was a familiar face. Just one of the “support” staff. A title I gladly wear. I was just the person in the right spot at the right time to receive some of the outpouring of all that emotion that was welled up inside that needed a place to go. Among all the moments that we’ve had in the 2025 season so far and all the ones that I hope we will have in the next few months, that hug with Bella will stay with me for a long time. At that moment, it wasn’t about stats, numbers, charts, and graphs and all the things I love to explore regarding volleyball. It was about joy.

A place of silence had become a place of joy.

I highly recommend wandering among stars and being still. It might just increase your joy.

 

 

Flexibility, Depth or Both?

I've been thinking this week about the meaning of a "flexible roster" versus a "deep team" as SFA travels to San Antonio to get the 2025 campaign underway.  Both phrases are common to hear in pre-season interviews with players and coaches.  You've heard it before: "I think we have a really flexible roster this year and I think it will pay dividends as we get closer to November".  Or, maybe: "We have a deep team.  I can count on my teammates to pick me up if I have an off night."

But, what do these terms really mean?  Or, are they just fun words players, coaches and fans like to throw out there to keep the conversations going?  Everybody always just nods their heads and moves on when someone starts talking about roster depth or team flexibility.

So, let's try and get into this because I think possibly our club this year may possess both characteristics.  But first, let me state that I don't think these two terms are the same.  They do sometimes get used interchangeably, but I really think we are talking about two different things here.

For instance, a team might have two athletes that are regular starters and each is fully capable of holding down either a right side or middle blocker spot.  The issue isn't whether one will play often - the issue is which will play MB and which will play RS.  This isn't a depth situation.  This only calls into focus these two players ability to be flexible across two positions that share some measure of similarity in that they require a strong blocking presence.

So, with the acceptance that the terms aren't necessarily the same, let's explore both concepts for the 2025 roster here at SFA.  Three examples of flexibility that come to mind for our squad are Molly Cravens, Kennedy Jones and Caroline Kahle.  Both at the end of last year and in the recent scrimmage, these athletes have shown fluidity between various positions.  Jones was deployed on the left side during '24, but in part because of Cravens shift to the middle, Jones now has an avenue to playing time as a right side attacker.  On the topic of Cravens, let me say that she is one of the players that jumped out to me when I first started watching a few fall practices.  She is clearly stronger and appears slightly quicker.  Her conditioning between last year and this fall clearly has paid dividends.  I like what I see from her shifting to the middle and I feel like she'll be quite at home there.  Now, concerning Kahle, we saw last year that she is flexible enough to both hold down the libero jersey if called on there or to play on the outside, albeit with more of a ball control focus than being a huge scoring threat.

While there is some additional flexibility present in some of the newcomers to the team, the primary root of flexibility comes in some shape or form through Cravens, Jones and Kahle.  So, what are the questions related to this quality?  First, will Jones settle in and play consistently as a right side?  Can she contribute both offensively and defensively and shore up the reps opposite Katherine Holtman's trips across the front row?  If yes, super.  The right side should be all six rotation strong.  If not, will that necessitate Cravens shifting back or one of the young guns stepping up into the roll?

Secondly, where will Cravens fall in the middle blocker depth?  Let's wait on that, because Molly is involved in both the flex and depth part of my breakdown.  So, third:  Will TWU transfer Luna Franca stay steady in the libero jersey?  If so, Kahle can stand ready to stabilize passing and sub for an off outside hitter when called on off the bench.  To use a basketball analogy, Kahle can comfortably be the teams' "sixth man" - able to flexibly fill multiple needs as a "first off the bench" type piece.  One thing to really like about Franca:  she's a good court communicator and aggressive in her back row approach.  It's easy to see a maturity there and so the issue should rest rather firmly with her ability to consistently pass so we can run the offense at the speed desired. Okay, that seems to cover the nucleus of the flexibility.

Alright, what about depth?  Here, we are talking about multiple players able to play the SAME role rather than changing to have differing responsibilities.  Since Cravens is in the overlap, let's state that right now the middle for SFA does look at least cleanly three deep.  Which pair of 2024 SLC 1st teamer Kyanna Creecy, Cravens and returning sophomore Jordan Henderson holds down the two starting middle spots could be interesting to watch as the season progresses.  By nature of Creecy's previous accomplishments I think she rightfully deserves the space to stay atop the depth chart, but Henderson should push for playing time and the team may encounter periods during the year where differing combinations of middles are flip-flopped and tried to see which is most efficient.  This position gets ridiculously deep again once senior Bella Ortiz is ready to go.

Setter?  Again, there seems to be three-fold depth.  Flynn is playing every night she's healthy.  But again, similar to second and third on the depth chart in the middle, sophomore Cambry Saul and transfer sophomore Zoe Gun give the team options for the second setter in our 6-2.  Saul got the nod in the scrimmage, and I expect her to get the start to open the season. Gun got a lot of reps in the spring season since she was on campus and so her connection with the majority of the hitters is also well established.  One weapon that gives Cambry an edge could be her serve.  Saul put up 21 aces last year and had some memorable runs behind the service line.  To push Saul aside, Gun would need to both run the offense well and play solid floor defense.  I don't think it unrealistic that there could be some mixing and matching at this spot during the year, especially considering how demanding it is to be a setter in this system.

Any depth to be found in left side attack would probably have to come from either Jones moving back to that spot - either by necessity or when Ty Joseph would return and earn court time again - or from newcomers.  As is sits, the left-side attack is fairly straightforward.  Senior Cam Hill and UTRGV grad transfer Illana DeAssis have the two spots covered.  We've seen Hill be productive for three years and DeAssis was stellar in the valley earning first team all conference honors last year.  More than that, DeAssis was second in the Southland in kills per set, so it would take a lot to move either off their role.  With really only Jones having experience in purple on the left, if Kennedy takes hold of the right, then the depth on the left would be tested in anything unforeseen happens to either Hill or DeAssis.  Again, behind the tandem of their experience is just newcomers that show promise but would be thrown into a pretty demanding scenario minus Cam or Illana.

There also is not much depth at libero.  It's Franca or Kahle right now.  It's a stretch - at least at this point - to see anyone else having that assignment. The team would love to see Franca seize the role and never look back. 

So, in summary for the depth concept:  At middle and setter, it appears some nice level of depth is there.  When Bella Ortiz and Ty Joseph get back the depth at middle and right side obviously increases.  The left side is for Hill and DeAssis to run with having both potential and question marks behind and libero is Franca's to get with Kahle able to stabilize.

So, do the 'Jacks have more flexibility than depth?  More depth than flex?  Or, do they have both?  Flexibility, Depth or Both?  I guess that's for you to interpret for now and all of us to discover between now and Thanksgiving.

Both opening matches this weekend from San Antonio are available here at the blog on radio.  Just hit the radio button at the of the page at 6:00 PM Friday night and 11:00 AM Saturday morning and you'll be a part of getting this 2025 season officially underway.

'Jacks Youth Represents Well

 Hammond, La. -- SFA Volleyball was bounced from the 2024 Southland Conference Tournament earlier today, but a roster that began the season as the youngest among the Division 1 ranks represented the program well.  SFA had nine primary players on the floor for each of the two contests here in Louisiana and six of them were freshman.  Of the final three, two were second year athletes and of course, the last being junior setter Jayden Flynn.  With the loss today, SFA stands at 23-8 and will have to wait late into the night on Sunday, December 1 for their NIVC fate.

If Southeastern Louisiana wins the tournament championship tomorrow, then SFA is the NIVC automatic qualifier for the Southland by way of finishing in second place in the regular season standings.  Even if Texas A&M - Corpus Christi were to win tomorrow, it is likely that SFA would be placed in the NIVC field, so the real issue is if we'll get to have bonus volleyball in Shelton Gym as one of the 8 host sites for the first two rounds.  Toward that point, SFA has hosted before in 2021 and would seem to have a least a coin flip chance at gaining that honor again.  But, we'll have one very long week before we see the NIVC bracket revealed because that does not happen until the NCAA Tournament matchups are completely set.

Personally, I felt like there were four individual performances that stood out to me over the two days effort and I'll highlight them here:

Kyanna Creecy probably played the most consistent of any Ladyjack across the two matches.  She hit .439 (22-4-41) and blocked nine balls in our nine sets.  Her kill per set tally of 2.44 was above her normal season output.  If I had a vote, she'd be our all-tournament representative for her consistency.  She and Katherine Holtman were the only two Ladyjacks with double figure kills in both games and Ky hit .600 on Friday and .346 on Saturday.

Jayden Flynn had one of the best matches I've seen her play this year on Friday during the quarterfinals against HCU.  I thought her decision making in that particular match was outstanding as she racked up 34 assists.  All together, Flynn posted 59 assists (6.46 a/s) and also tallied 27 digs equivalent to an even 3.00 digs/set.  Both the assist and dig per set numbers were above her season norms.  She also passed the 2000 career assist plateau in the win against the Huskies.

Kennedy Jones had seven blocks in the semifinal loss against Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  As far as moments where one athlete "took over", Jones gets that nod for us with three of her blocks all close together in time during a middle set against the Islanders.  All told, Kennedy tallied 23 kills (.191, 2.56 k/s) and blocked 10 balls in nine sets to lead SFA in blocks per set for the tournament.  She's been a steady contributor in her starting role the back half of 2024.

Last, but not least, what about Harley Krause?  Krause has done some great things in her limited action throughout the year, but with Camryn Hill out and Humphreys shifting Cravens to the middle, Krause filled the vacant slot like a pro here this weekend in her FIRST collegiate starts.  Her Friday match was astounding: 17 kills, hitting .412.  Combined, she got 23 total kills, hit .263 for the tournament and chipped in two aces, three blocks and 12 digs.  She had the University Center buzzing as I answered "who dat?" questions all afternoon after she burst onto the scene.

Again, I think Creecy was our most steady performer over all, but Krause's game 1 and Jones' block party in game 2 were more than memorable.  Flynn looked like an absolute ace at times in the first matchup as well.  Worth throwing in are the facts that Kathrine Holtman's 26 kills led the team despite a few more errors than normal for her and Natalie Guerrero was solid with 4.56 digs per set across the two days. Sophia Wilson served up two aces against HCU and handed out 42 assists (4.67 a/s).

Time to start our lobbying, hoping, praying, encouraging and what ever other-ing we can for an NIVC host site!  It would only seem fitting for the home crowd to get a chance to honor this super young squad a few more times in Shelton Gym before the semester ends.

As of this writing, SFA's Futures RPI rank is 80.  That will change up or down across the week as more matches are played around the country.  But, however you slice it, having an RPI among the top quarter of all NCAA Division 1 programs when you are finishing your year with an active roster consisting of only one upperclassman is quite an accomplishment.

As always, I'm proud to rep SFA Volleyball. It has only happened to me a few times, but it is ALWAYS tough to watch the coaches and team go while I stay at a conference tournament.  But, I have a job to do, and I have this opportunity because of them and because of the SFA Volleyball family.  They have represented SFA well - I can only try and follow.

Watch the final between #2 seed Texas A&M - Corpus Christi and #1 seed host Southeastern Louisiana at 3:00 PM CT on Sunday.  Tyler Thomas (SLU PxP) and yours truly will be on the headsets for the final on ESPN+.

Comments and Philosophies Regarding the Official All-SLC Lists

 It is always a wonderful day when the All-Conference teams get announced. We get to see all of the cool graphics that the creative content divisions come up with to honor athletes at their school.  My social media pages get flooded with pictures of the honorees and lists of their superlatives.  I love scrolling through and seeing all the recognition.  Through my years at SFA, I've been able to be physically present several times when our coaching staff has informed our players of their honors.  That's always a really special moment to see their faces light up and the team cheer for them in the gym or on the bus or in a meeting room.

This year the official lists were released while I was driving my super duper rental car somewhere across I-10 headed for Hammond.  Once I got to my hotel here in the host city, the first thing I did after checking in and unpacking was gaze at the official all-conference lists.

Let's dive in and compare the Official Southland Conference All- SLC lists to those that I posted yesterday morning before the official announcements.

In general there are a lot of similarities.  Indeed, the conference and I agree on 11 of the 14 players honored on the first team and 16 of 21 players honored overall.  That doesn't leave a large space of room for difference of opinions, but there are a few things worth mentioning I feel.  Some of the points being made here are philosophical on my end and they are things that I repeat pretty much every year.  There are just certain methods and philosophies that I have adopted that not all coaches and SID's will incorporate in the same way.  

That isn't to say that my way is "right" and others' ways are "wrong".  I don't think that is my place to argue anymore.  I really value statistical analysis is making my choices.  After all, my real job is in the mathematical sciences and that's what I truly do for a living.  I am literally paid to analyze data, teach people how to analyze data and solve problems with data.

So, the numbers are always going to be primary.  Not everyone is numerically driven and so that's a philosophical difference in player evaluation.  To that end, that's why I always use ALL relevant data and I firmly believe that you should use FULL season stats in making these picks.  That's my first premise:

• Data should not be omitted from analysis unless it is irrelevant.  Non-conference data is not irrelevant.  Using it can help you identify player progression and trends.  It can help you determine which players have found and lost roles.  It's information about the quality of the player and your goal should be to pick the best players.  The argument against this is strength of schedule differences across the 12 teams.  My counterargument to that is very simple:  You shouldn't vote if you aren't willing to be intentional about adjusting for such.  To simply say that we will throw a dozen matches of statistics out of our consideration for every player to make it "even" is actually the lazy way out.  Use all the data.  Make your adjustments.  Invest in reasonable ways to adjust for differing non-conference schedules.

Next, and this is a continual point that I make about these lists:  We should genuinely desire to honor outstanding athletes on teams that have poor records or did not qualify for the SLC Tournament.  Sure, the top 8 teams should populate the vast majority of the lists.  However, I have found that far too often the bottom four or five teams in the conference get completely shut out from any honor at all despite these teams often having a player worth mention.  I personally believe this happened again this year and that's unfortunate.

Third, and this is also a repeated point from year to year.  When we have athletes that are among the NATIONAL leaders in traditional statistics associated with their position, they should receive strong consideration for these lists.  Cases in point:

• India Bennett of SLU is 8th in the nation in blocks per set and 14th in total blocks.  She leads the SLC in blocks per set at 1.49.  To me, that is worthy of a 1st team honor.  Now, for full disclosure, I am guilty of the very point I am making concerning Alex Hoglund, the setter for Texas A&M - Corpus Christi.  Hoglund is 8th in the nation in assists per set.  Bennett was on the official 2nd team.  Hoglund was on my personal second team.  Now, I'll be honest, I put more stock in blocks/set as a statistic for MB's than I do assists per set for setters.  But again, I'm trying to be perfectly fair in pointing out what could have been my own oversight.

• Jade Smith, the libero for East Texas A&M, has amassed 5.40 digs per set.  East Texas A&M's team and player ranks do not populate on the NCAA D1 Volleyball website due to the program not being fully transitioned (yet) and not eligible for NCAA post-season play.  However, Smith's value would rank her 5th in the nation.  Again, I fully understand that the measure of a libero is not exclusively in one metric.  That has been pointed out to me many times.  I get it.  However, I'd argue that we make ourselves look - at a minimum out of touch - and at a maximum foolish when we ignore players completely that are on national leaderboards.  Also, please don't cite me opponent/schedule issues in this case.  East Texas A&M played all of East Carolina, TCU, UCLA, Houston and Ole Miss prior to conference play.  That's more than a respectable schedule. They played three Top 50 RPI matches which is as many as SLU and SFA did. Their strength of schedule at FigStats ranks 5th in the SLC.  Smith put up her numbers against quality teams for a full season.  It isn't right to COMPLETELY ignore her on all-conference lists.  We need to be more aware of national leaders from our conference.

Despite the above philosophical disconnects between the way that I WOULD vote and the way that the voters ACTUALLY vote, remember that there was still agreement on 16 of 21 athletes.  So finally, let me again champion the several cases where I saw things different.  

I will not argue against an actual honoree in open writing such as this.  I've done that before and I think I should admit it is not productive and possibly could undermine my intent.  Now, in conversation, I would respectfully tell anyone that would listen why I believe certain players should or should not be on lists.  After all, I'm just giving my own opinion and interpretation of player value.  No one has to agree with me.  I've been at this too long to have that hurt my feelings.  But, it is right to be respectful of the OFFICAL honored athletes.  The point is to celebrate great play.  I'm always on board with that.  That said, here's my second attempt at casting some light on a few players left off official lists:

• Alexis Logarbo of SLU is one of the top right side hitters in the conference in my opinion.  She was third among all RS's in attack percentage and led all in total blocks with 77.  If you want to argue that Logarbo gets a lot of block assists because she closes with SLU's middles, then why are we not honoring SLU's middles?  That seems like a circular argument to me.  I'll be bold enough to say that I think only SFA's Katherine Holtman has had a clearly better performance at right side across the conference.  There are some RS's that had better kill and kill per set numbers than Logarbo (e.g., De Assis, Allison [S/RS]), but those players had attack percentages and block numbers significantly worse than Logarbo.  It works both ways.

• As you might expect, I like my 2nd team more than the official lists.  I've already argued for Smith and SLU's middles and implicitly I've argued for Castro and Benjamin as being snubbed for their team rather than their numbers.  The Tillman and Zech (I'm actually a big Zech fan) picks I am OK with because they made my "just missed" list.

• For what it's worth, I was dead on with my statement in the original post about the player most likely to be included on the official lists that I left off.  Again, I just respectfully, believe that we should expect the highest honored middle BLOCKERS to have statistically significant blocking statistics.

• I believe the voters got it exactly right regarding SFA.  Of course, that's the team I know best and where my loyalty will always lie.  That said, a team that goes undefeated in conference play and wins 24 matches in a row deserves more than one player on the first team.  Especially when we are honoring 14 players on the first team.  Frankly, I think that is difficult to justify under any philosophical difference of player evaluation.  

• Last year in the WAC, the two top teams were SFA and Grand Canyon.  Each of those teams had three players among the top 16 vote getters.  I'm willing to think I should have reconsidered on Hoglund at AMCC.  Maybe I made a mistake there. Fair enough.  However, I'd have been really disappointed last season if Ielan Bradley won WAC player of the Year and she was our only first team honoree among the Top 14. If Logarbo gets on a list and one of Bennett/McKelvey slides up, then this is all more plateable.  Above, I've made my case for that being Bennett.

Still, overall, there was a lot of agreement and lots to celebrate!  We should keep the focus on that aspect of all this as we await our four first round matches on Friday!  Today is such a cool day and I can't wait to see these women get their awards.

Next up in this space... more honoring players!  I'll have a post up in the next day or so about my favorite non-SFA players around the league.  Announcers develop favorites as they watch all the opponents play their school.  So, I'll list a few of my favorite players from around the Southland Conference since I'm a fan of the entire conference too in spite of working for SFA full time during the season.

12th Annual (Resurrected!) SFA VolleyBlog All-SLC Teams

 Change is Good

Last year when I published the "2nd Annual SFA VolleyBlog All-WAC Teams" I wrote that readers could check on my method of team construction in the "11th and final rendition of my Southland All-Conference picks".  Times change and that is evidenced by Stephen F. Austin's return to the SLC and also my decision to dovetail this post into one that mimics the conference structure for the first time.

This is the 14th year I have done this exercise and I have made repeated arguments for creating actual teams.  Typically, I would pick a first, second and third team that each had minimum positional requirements so that, for instance, the "first team" was actually a playable team on the court.  I've tried to make justifications for why I thought this is best in the past and I still believe in those arguments.  However, through the years I've seen just how many different ways this can be done and how virtually every method has its pros and cons.

So, like SFA coming back to the Southland, I've decided to change.  Adaptability is a skill.  I'm willing to change.  

Similarities and Differences to How the Conference Makes Official Lists

Let me explain the similarities and differences in my methods and those that you will see that generate the official lists later in the week:

First, coaches nominate a list of players.  I find this totally unnecessary and this is one place where I have chosen not to yield.  What this means is that the pool of players that can receive official votes is dictated entirely by the coaches themselves.  Sorry, coaches... that's too much power and it can occasionally be abused. I say the player universe that we can choose from should be all rosters on all teams. 

That's basically the only main difference in how these picks will be made, because now what happens is that the coaches rank 21 players from the submitted nominees and the votes are tallied up. The top 14 vote getters receive first team honor and the next seven are awarded second team.  A coach cannot vote for their own players.  From these votes the top vote getter at freshman, setter, libero, and newcomer are determined and given those special awards.  A coach of the year is chosen and of course, the top vote getter overall is the player of the year.  Each school submits one list which is meant to be a representation of both that school's coach and sports information director.

I'll make a 14/7 pair of lists like mentioned above and I'll also throw in a few "just missed" athletes because honoring players is good and I wish that the conference had an "honorable mention" section Below is a disclaimer section (this is important), my lists, a statistical breakdown of "stat pros" and "stat lows" and then my overall methodology for full transparency.

The "stat pros/lows" is something that I started while doing this in the WAC because when people would ask me why I made certain choices I was almost always answering those questions with something from this section.  So, I decided to just start publishing those statistical rankings to aid people with getting in my head about these things.

As the folks here at SFA can testify, I keep spreadsheets of data on every starting player in the conference on my laptop that I use while I call matches.  Those spreadsheets include statistical rankings for every key player in the conference and how they compare to other players at their respective positions.

Disclaimer Section!

(Yes, I need this.  My history in the Southland dictates this is necessary) This post was published BEFORE the official All-SLC teams were announced by the conference.  I do this independently and DO NOT discuss my picks with coaches or representatives from the institutions beforehand (including SFA!!. Believe it or not, but years ago I got accused once or twice of actually influencing the voters because I would publish the lists before the coaches turned their rankings in.  I found that claim absurd, but started publishing the list the day or two before the league announced the real winners so that the voting would be over or ending.  

I have called on ESPN+ or on radio a match involving every team in the league this year.  I have personally called and/or watched each team in the league play entire matches multiple times.  Based on what I do for a living, statistical analysis weighs HEAVY in making my picks.  But, I've been calling collegiate volleyball for a decade now and so the "eyeball" test is in here too.  But just know.. numbers/stats are what will always drive me. 

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 1st Team All-SLC (14 players)

Cicily Hidalgo, Southeastern La. (OH, SR, Player of the Year)

Kyndal Payne, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (OH, SR)

Audrey Pearce, HCU (MB, SR)

Kyanna Creecy, SFA (MB, SO)

India Bennett, Southeastern La. (MB, R-SO)

Izabella Ortiz, SFA (MB, JR)

McKenzie Moore, McNeese (OH, SR)

Katherine Holtman, SFA (RS, FR, Freshman of the Year)

Isabella Constantini, UTRGV (S, SO, Setter of the Year)

Claudia Lupescu, UTRGV (OH, SR)

Calissa Allison, UIW (S/RS, FR)

Alexis Logarbo, Southeastern La. (RS, JR)

Illana De Assis, UTRGV (RS, SR)

Kyra McElvey, Southeastern La. (RS, SO)

Stat Pros:

Hidgalgo: Only OH in top three by position in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks, d/s aces

Payne: Among OH, 2nd in k/s and att%, 3rd in k, 4th in d/s

Pearce: one of only two MB in top five in all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Creecy: one of only two MB in top five of all of b/s, bl, k/s, k, att%

Bennett: top MB in conference in b/s, bl and 4th in att%

Ortiz: 2nd among MB in att%, 3rd in k/s and k at position

Moore: top OH in conference in k and k/s

Holtman: only RS in conference in top 3 in all of k/s, k, att%, blocks at position

Constantini: one of only three S in top half at position in all of assists/set, assists, aces, d/s

Lupescu: 3rd at position in aces, 4th in k, 5th in k/s

Allison: truly unique as S/RS, 4th among RS in k/s, k, 450+ assists, triple double leader

Logarbo: top RS in total block, third at position in att%, sixth in k

De Assis: top RS in k and k/s, sixth in att% at position

McElvey: top RS in att%, 5th in k/s

Stat Lows:

Lupescu:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks or dig/set

De Assis:  Not Top 10 at position in blocks

2024 SFA VolleyBlog 2nd Team All-SLC (7 players)

Leah Linares Castro, Nicholls (RS, JR, Newcomer of the Year)

Alex Hoglund, Texas A&M - Corpus Christi (S, GR)

Maja Malinowska, Lamar (OH, FR)

Deja Benjamin, Northwestern St. (MB, JR)

Celianiz Cabranes, UTRGV (L, SO, Libero of the Year)

Keira Beverly, Southeastern La. (MB, R-FR)

Jade Smith, East Texas A&M (L, SR)

Coach of the Year:  Jeremy White, Southeastern La.

Stat Pros:

Castro: 2nd at position in k/s and k, 5th in att%, sixth in blocks

Hoglund: led conference in assists (1000+), 2nd in assists/s

Malinowska: 4th among OH in k/s, 5th in k, tied for 5th in d/s

Benjamin: 2nd among MB in b/s, 3rd in bl

Cabranes: one of only three L to be in top half at position in d, d/s, ace

Beverly: 5th at position in b/s, Top 10 at position in all of bl, k/s, k, att%

Smith:  5th in nation in d/s, only 500+ dig in conference

Stat Lows:

Malinowska: Not Top 10 at position in att%, bl

Benjamin: Not Top 10 at position in k/s, k

The following were under consideration for the final spots:  Nadine Zech, UTRGV (OH, SO), Kade Thomas, UIW (MB, JR), Grace McLaughlin, HCU (S, JR), Bailey Tilman, McNeese (L, SR).

Quick Thoughts:

• Originally had Allison as Freshman of Year, but Holtman's "Stat Pro" list flipped me by an inch.  Gotta be one of these two.
• Logarbo's stats surprised me.  Not someone I originally thought would make this list.
• McKelvey is a personal favorite.  I'll write a post about players like this soon.
• Thought there were a lot of average liberos w/ basically none really as standouts.
• We need to honor strong players on non-tournament teams (Castro, Benjamin)
• Jade Smith is among the national leaders in the defining stat for her position.  The conference should recognize such.  Actually fine with her as Libero of Year if chosen.
• It's a struggle to compare 5-1, 6-2 setters. (i.e., Gonzalez, Baumert vs. Flynn, Duplechein, Richardson)
• Player Most Likely to Make Official List Not Appearing Here: Leah Stolfus, TAMUCC or someone like Tilman from my "just missed".

Finally, Methodology

OH: 40% related to kill stats, 25% related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 25% defense stats, 10% serving stats with adjustments made for 6 vs. 3 rotation usage and observation

RS: 70% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency, 30% blocking with slight adjustments made for observation

MB: 60% blocking metrics, 40% offense with half of that related to hitting percentage/efficiency with slight adjustments made for observation

S: assist metrics as they relate to 5-1 vs. 6-2 usage, serving, slight consideration of dig/set, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB

L: dig/set, serving, significant adjustments for observation, no fixed percentage breakdown like OH, RS, MB.

"Observation" includes all of the following:  notes taken while calling matches, conversations with coaches during year, appearance of leadership and demeanor while on court and on bench while watching/calling matches, decision making, interactions with teammates.  All of these things are considered but would not move a particular player up or down more than one or two "slots" within position based on objective statistical measures.

Junior Achievement

 This time of year it's common to hear the phrase "there is a lot of volleyball left"!  This is true, of course, as SFA has five conference matches remaining and then several more to determine whether our fate is the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in seven calendar years or a date in the NIVC.  But, when you consider our three juniors - of whom this post is about - they too have a lot of volleyball left despite all these newcomers just getting their collegiate careers started.

A lot has been made of all the SFA freshman and for good reason.  Katherine Holtman will be in the Southland Conference Freshman of the Year conversation in just a few more weeks. Natalie Guerrero and Brooklyn Shelton have each seen plenty of time at libero.  Sophia Wilson started out as the second setter before yielding to redshirt freshman Cambry Saul.  Harley Krause should continue to get opportunities and has drawn the praise of coaches in recent weeks.  Kennedy Jones has been a solid contributor since cracking the starting lineup - especially in floor defense.  Molly Cravens has shown flashes while holding down the second right side role. Jordan Henderson got in two sets and contributed last night in New Orleans and Autumn Jordan is waiting in wings while being a strong presence on challenge teams in practice.  That's nine freshmen and one redshirt freshman that have been at the center of a successful 2024 season to this point.

But, with no slight to Sophomores Kyanna Creecy, Caroline Kahle and Ty Joseph, this post is about projecting where our Juniors, who have now played roughly two-thirds of their SFA careers, might wind up statistically. Let's look at each of Camryn Hill, Bella Ortiz and Jayden Flynn briefly in terms of just what sort of statistical milestones may very well lie ahead in all of this "volleyball that's left to play":

JR OH Camryn Hill

For Hill, the milestone chase is that of 1000 digs and she should actually get there quite easily. With 547 career kills, hitting 1000 career kills won't happen, but digs is a totally different story.  Currently, Hill has 788 in her career and at her current pace, she projects to finish this season with 353.   Interestingly enough, that's right in line with her 2023 season when she scooped 352.  So, that's one thing to watch - will Hill set a career high for digs in a season here in 2024?  At any rate, the totals between '23 and '24 should be relatively close.  A total of 353 would put her at 881 going into her senior season which you can see makes getting to 1000 purely a matter of good health.  

Another season like the previous two brings her career projected dig mark to well over 1000 - I calculate it at 1234.  So, Hill should join the 1000 dig club at SFA without amassing enough to crack the Top 10 list all-time.  That would take getting to 1459 which appears out of reach. Still a career that posts between 850 and 900 career kills and over 1200 career digs would be more than a solid set of contributions.  More than likely, Hill won't be a record book entry on the career page, but she's already well on her way to being remembered as a very solid all around six rotation outside.

Given Hill's projected numbers, the 1000 dig club should be a big celebration point about a third of the way into the 2025 season.

Projections:  1234 digs, 899 kills

JR MB Izabella Ortiz

Now this is really, really interesting.  I think given Bella's current pace we are going to see a race to 1000 kills and 500 blocks at this time next year.  And its going to be CLOSE on both accounts - again, health willing. The only other player in SFA history to have 1000 kills AND 500 blocks is the revered Aubrey Duncan who played here from 1991 to 1994 (before my time).  So, Bella at least has a chance at doing something statistically that no one has done in thirty years.

Let's take a look at just how close this could be:  First, the kills side of things.  Bella currently has 693 kills and at her current pace I've got her projected to finish the season at 301.  That would put her at 771 kills going into her senior season.  At 2.50 kills per set, a rate she has been able to hold this year we can project a 110 set senior season to add on 275 more kills for a grand total projection of 1,046 career kills.  Obviously, that makes getting to 1000 within the realm of possibility, but no where near the same likelihood as Hill getting to 1000 digs.  At Ortiz' sophomore rate of 2.20 kills per set, the projection works out to 1,013.  So, health is the key, because at the current production rate Ortiz should be close to the 1000 kill mark very late in the 2025 season.

Now, 500 blocks would be a truly magnificent total, because again, Duncan is the only person in SFA history to get to that milestone as she leads the Ladyjacks all-time with 569.  Bella has 81 blocks this season and at her current rate of right at one block per set, she'd be expected to finish with a season tally of 111.  That would land her at 372 going into her senior season.  Assuming her current career rate of 1.09 blocks per set for 110 more senior sets gets you to a career projection of....492.  Ortiz' shot at 500 career blocks may very well wind up depending upon how deep SFA plays in the postseason during her final two years - this year and next.  Of course, Ortiz already has a 151 block season under her belt.  If the 372 block total going into her last year is near accurate, another 150 puts her cleanly above 500 at a career total of between 520 and 525.

So, the elusive 1000 kill and 500 block tally is a possibility, but we will probably be talking about a statistical chase that comes right down to the wire if she stays healthy for the next year.  Ortiz' 151 blocks in 2023 already has her a record book entry at 7th best all time.  This year, she has entered the Top 10 all-time match attack percentages leaderboard twice with an .818 effort at UTRGV and her .800 attack percentage at New Orleans.  She projects to easily land in the Top 10 all-time at SFA in both total blocks and solo blocks and could finish anywhere from 2nd to 10th on those lists.  My bet is that she finishes 2nd all time in total blocks and either 2nd or 3rd in solos.  She's also got a chance at the all-time attack percentage mark for a career held by Kristy Rhodes at .342.  Ortiz' career hitting percentage as of this writing is .346.  Making the Top 10 list all-time for attack percentage should be a cinch, but maintaining hitting in the .340's or above is a tall order for another year and one-third.  But again, she's done it to this point.  

All in all, her place in the record books points to Ortiz very well going down as statistically one of the top five middle blockers to ever come to SFA.  You might be able to even argue she'll finish as one of the top two or three best players at that position to ever wear purple.  I'm not quite sure that people realize just how many entries Ortiz may have in the all-time SFA record book and I have to admit - her potential career totals are the main impetus for writing this post.  She is truly on an elite arc.

Projections: 1,046 career kills, 492 career blocks (2nd all time), .342 career attack % (1st all time)

JR S Jayden Flynn

For Flynn the most interesting category is total aces, because as a 6-2 setter there's a natural boundary on the record books list for assists that she won't be able to cross. JJ Jones ('04-'07) leads the way with 5191 career assists.  Then, comes a setter before my time in Bianca Aranda ('95-'98) at 5155.  Then, the second best (to Jones) setter I've ever seen at SFA is third on the assists lists and that's Marissa Dorcheus ('98-'01) with 5,060.  Fourth is Wendy Walling ('90-'93) with 4,666 and then Paige Holland ('11-'14) - who was SFA's last truly dominant 5-1 setter with 4,488.  Those five ladies represent the five truly outstanding setters running one-setter offenses in SFA volleyball history.  Sixth on the all-time assist list is Ann Hollas ('16-'19) who we often used in a modified 6-2 alignment that allowed her to hit from the right side while front row.

Flynn' assists per set numbers through her career have been amazingly stable right at 6.10 assists per set.  That's the number I'll use to project that she'll finish this year with 694.  That would put her at 2,039 going into her senior season.  It seems just like yesterday that Flynn got to 1,500 career assists and then shortly thereafter got onto the Top 10 career assists list.  Just last week she passed up Sunni Williams ('99-'02) for 9th all-time.  Another season at 6.10 assists per set for 110 sets would get her career grand total to 2,710.  That would allow her to pass former teammate and mentor Maddy Bourque ('20-'24) and also Terri Sherrill ('91-'94) and finish 7th all-time in assists at SFA.  Of course, this would technically be SECOND all-time at SFA for a 6-2 setter and if you want to get picky.... FIRST all-time at SFA for a pure 6-2 setter.

Now, about those aces.  A career clip of 0.39 aces per set extrapolates out to a total of 46 for this season and 133 going into her last year.  The 0.39 per set rate over 110 more sets as a senior lands her career projection at 176. That would put her 5th all-time at SFA in total aces and also fifth all time in aces per set.  Quite literally, Jayden is probably the best overall server SFA has seen in 20 years.  Again, health permitting, Flynn should be in the all-time SFA record books in three categories and for as long as SFA continues to prefer 6-2 offenses she will probably be remembered as one of the best 6-2 setters all-time here in Nacogdoches.  Behind Aranda and Walling, she'll probably have the third most aces ever in Ladyjack history as a setter.  Maybe while not a top five overall setter in team history, she looks to me to be in the five to ten range and that's enough of a statistical resume to be long remembered and well thought of deep into the future.

Projections: 2,710 career assists (7th all time) 176 career aces (5th all time), 0.39 aces per set (5th all time)