By ordinary measures, SFA Volleyball to this point in the year has been successful. While our Futures RPI at this writing sits at 109 and is lower than what it has been at this point in the year in recent seasons, a 16-7 overall record is a solid achievement. Zeroing in on the conference race, SFA controls its own destiny with an 11-1 record with just four matches remaining on the regular season slate. Obviously, SFA has taken care of its necessary business during conference play to this point.
Looking across the league, there appears to be no dominant team in the Southland this season. So, there is every reason to believe that the Ladyjacks’ chances of winning the 2025 Southland Conference Tournament in three weeks is as good as any of our competition. One thing to watch down the stretch is how well the team performs in close sets. To date, this is one area that hasn’t quite gone Stephen. F. Austin’s way. The first time the ‘Jacks repeatedly struggled in close sets was in the teams’ first loss of the year – one that for me still rates as the biggest disappointment – the four set loss at home to Sam Houston. You’ll remember that every set in that match went to extra points and the ‘Jacks dropped Sets 2, 3 and 4 each by the minimum two points.
Just a week after the Sam Houston loss, SFA dropped another four-set match in Chicago to Bowling Green in eerily similar fashion. The ‘Jacks won the first set by the minimum two-point separation and then lost the remaining sets 23-25, 24-26 and 23-25. Flash forward just another week and SFA was swept by UTEP, who is having an outstanding season, and all three sets were extremely close. At that point in the season, the lack of winning close sets had become a point of multiple conversations.
Add it all up and when the non-conference part of our schedule was through, SFA had played 21 sets decided by three or fewer points. Of those 21 sets, the ‘Jacks went 8-13 (.381). Comparing those numbers to 2024, SFA played 21 sets decided by three points or less ALL SEASON and came out with essentially an even split going 10-11. Here, in 2025, the trend of losing close sets has continued into conference play. In eight sets played and decided by either two or three points, the ‘Jacks are just 2-6. Overall, this year our record in sets that tight is an underwhelming 10-19 (.345).
It's easy to take that 10-19 record in close sets and conjecture what might have been if things were more even at 14-15 or 15-14. Redistributing four or five set wins across the season easily could produce an overall season record of 19-4 or even 20-3, which of course, on paper, looks all the more stronger than 16-7. Fans that witnessed the Sam Houston and Bowling Green matches can easily point to those two that could have been flipped. The match against Loyola Chicago (we had match points) and the conference loss to UIW (17-19 in an insane 5th set) also come to mind as two matches that could have been won had the team been able to find a missing two or three points here and there.
So, where did we leave our two or three points? Where did they go? What explains a 10-19 record in close sets so far? Should we be thinking of this team as though it is a 20-3 team or is there an assignable cause to our showing in close sets that points to a shortcoming that just may be our undoing? Basically speaking, is this luck or is this real?
The answer is probably a little of both. The “bad luck” theory is at least backed up in one other statistic that is publicly available. This year, fans have heard me talk a little about evollve.net on the broadcasts and in casual conversations. This recommended website tracks some unique volleyball metrics and one of them is a statistic that they have actually named “Luck.”
They look at the total points that a team has scored and given up and estimate what their season win-loss record should be from those totals. This is called the Pythagorean Expected Win-Loss Percentage. This statistic has actually become popular in other sports as well. For instance, it is readily trackable during the major league baseball season on ESPN’s standings page. The difference between the actual win-loss percentage and the expected Pythagorean percentage is called “Luck” at evollve.net. If your expected winning percentage is higher than actual, you’ve been “unlucky.” If your expected winning percentage is lower than actual, then you’ve been “lucky.” According to evollve, SFA’s expected Pythagorean winning percentage is .799, which would put us a little between 18-5 and 19-4. That sounds about right considering all that we’ve chronicled above regarding our close-set snafus.
What is really interesting however, is that evollve tracks this “Luck” concept for all 348 Division 1 schools and at this writing, we are ranked 332nd in “Luck”. Put another way, we are the 17th most unlucky school in the nation according to this one particular measure. Take that for what you will.
Now, there are other potential explanations other than simply “SFA has been unlucky in close sets.” I have my theory on a few of them, and I am positive the coaching staff does as well. It’s not really my desire here to postulate, but instead just to point out something to watch for. At this point in the season, every single match has huge implications. Whether SFA winds up making a too early exit in the Southland Conference tournament, playing, and advancing in the NIVC, or playing and advancing in the NCAA Tournament could very well come down to one or two close sets decided by two or three points.
As you watch and listen to the ‘Jacks in the next month pay close attention to those situations where the set score is 20-18, 22-20, 23-22, etc. When those situations arise, how we close things out may very well dictate our fate.
I’ve got my fingers crossed and high hopes that whether
by luck or by skill or both, we can find where we have left our three points.