This is the first of several times this year – as always
– that you’ll get a good old fashioned dose of straight up honesty from
me. SFA purple bleeds in my veins when
it comes to volleyball, but today we break down the preseason polls and ask the
rather honest question: Does SFA deserve to be picked first in the Southland
Conference? Let’s not bury the
lede. I think the choice of SFA first is
a fine one, and can be defended, but if I had a preseason vote I would have
picked the lslanders.
With due respect to Sam Houston State, who managed one
first place vote in both the coaches and SID polls, and Central Arkansas, who
was picked third by the SID’s, I can’t see the argument for either of these
teams being in this top-of-the-heap discussion.
These are solid tournament bound teams, but let me quickly dispatch my
argument for their exclusion from this post.
UCA is coming off a 12-4 SLC record in 2015 and loses one
of the top players this conference has ever seen in Heather Schnars. Setter Amy South and Fulani Petties are also
gone. So, you’ve got Anderson and Nash
and a bunch of youth. I judge it not
enough. I can’t see the argument for
improving upon last year’s conference record.
The voters agree as they didn’t get any first place votes in either poll. It’s just going to be really hard to replace
all that Schnars can give. This is a
good team, but I’d pick them 4th.
Sam Houston State beat UCA in the first round of the 2015
SLC Tournament (gotta wonder if UCA is where they got their first place vote in
this years’ poll), but was under .500 in SLC play last year. They return everyone so they should improve,
but I can’t see the leap to 13-3 or 14-2, etc.
Again, this is a solid team that will upset a few people and could make
for a dangerous mid-seed again, but to pin conference champions on them as a
prediction at this point doesn’t seem legit.
I think the three best teams in the Southland Conference
this year are Texas A&M – Corpus Christi, Stephen F. Austin and Houston
Baptist. Again, to shoot it to you straight,
that’s the order I would pick them if I had a vote. In my typical style, I’ll play both sides of
the coin for all three. So what will it
be? Win, Place or Show for these three
top horses? Or, will a dark horse arise
as the year progresses?
Islanders:
Why They Finish First:
Succinctly, they have the depth to overcome the loss of do-it-all Ivy
Baresh and I don’t think the coaching change will matter that much. They also lose Kelsee Felux, who was third on
the team in kills last year, but I think the remaining core can soak it up. They bring back two huge anchors in Setter
Kristen Nicholson and Libero Kate Klepetka.
To, me that’s the leadership core.
You have the quarterback from a 16-0 squad back and the conference’s
best back-row defender. That’s the
breaker with SFA in preseason polls for me, right there. Then, you have to realize they have Carson,
Gilpin and Doud returning as offensive options for Nicholson. They clearly need another hitter to step up
on the left, but that’s a lot of talent coming back and until somebody takes
the “0” out of 16-0, this is the team to beat.
Why They Won’t:
Baresh was the go-to. When you
need a big kill, who do you go to now?
SFA knows all about not getting enough from one pin and running a lot to
the middles and right side. It’s tough
to be “great” that way. You can good,
but not great. Plus, Graystone is
gone. How much continuity and energy
will really spill over? New coaches
bring new demeanors, new relationships, new ways of doing things. Maybe the loss of a six rotation stud and the
coach that guided them to a perfect record is enough to make the pedal to the
metal Islanders stall out just enough to drop out of the top slot.
Overall Analysis:
The pros outweigh the cons. They
have the best setter and libero in the conference and again, I just don’t think
the coaching change is going to derail them that much. If they find adequate left pin help, I think
the growth and the experience of the other hitters is enough to compensate. Even with the loss of Baresh, I think this
team has the least overall question marks going into 2016.
Ladyjacks:
Why They Finish First:
The experience of Haley Coleman and a healthy Abby McIntyre will provide
enough support for the beast that is Justice Walker in the middle. Lexus Cain slides over and takes over for OJ
Olson and the two setter offense takes the pressure off Shannon Connell just
enough to make things work smooth. With
plenty of options for the second left side hitter down the bench, the ‘Jacks
will have offensive options all across the net for the first time in many
years. With so many potential offensive
weapons, SFA can at times overwhelm opponents all across the front line making
it very difficult for blockers to key on one person or place. This has the potential to a very, very strong
offense.
Why They Won’t:
The loss of Jacque Allen leaves the second middle to an inexperienced
freshman. The loss of Olson and Allen
mean both net and floor defense could drop a notch and SFA will find itself
trying to outscore its opponent rather than beating them on offense and
defense. Strong pin attacks by the
opposition could leave us vulnerable, especially on the rotations where Walker
is out. While the offense looks like it
has tons of options, it would be tough to see Cain replacing all of what Olson
brought and the same is certainly true when talking about freshmen replacing
Allen. Just enough of a step down
defensively to cost the ‘Jacks a conference title.
Overall Analysis: This team is improved from 2014 when
they finished third and held an 11-5 mark in Southland Play. I think improvement to 12-4 or 13-3 is
reasonable, but any losses to the lower half of the league may ruin the ‘Jacks
chance at the top seed. Then again, 13-3
could win the conference this year, so a first place pick is more than
defendable. SFA is going to have to be
extremely consistent to win the league title and with this much youth on the
squad, I expect just one or two stumbles that get easily fixed but slide the ‘Jacks
into spot #2 come November.
Huskies:
Why They Finish First:
The combination of Jessica Wooten and Kayla Armer has been deadly for
years and now that they are seniors, both are ready to take their final leap
forward. This team gained momentum all
during 2015 and it showed when they ousted SFA in the first round of last year’s
tournament. I think this momentum builds
and they get even better seasons out of Bailey Banks and my new non-SFA #1 player
fave: Blair Gillard. In fact, readers just better go ahead and
prepare of a season of gushing over Gillard – I absolutely love her game and
the passion with which she plays.
Extremely well coached, this team is poised to make another leap forward
– especially with all the front row talent and Armer, who is second only to
Nicholson (and even then by a smaller amount that you may realize) in terms of
setters in the Southland.
Why They Won’t:
The back row. Plus, they lose big
Allison Doerpinghaus, who was the tallest player in the Southland last
year. That’s 144 blocks that just went
out the door. In recent years, HBU has not been a team that gets a lot of
mention for back row play and I value that facet of the game probably more than
most people when judging team strength.
When you combine just average play from the Husky back row and the loss
of that much size in the middle, HBU may struggle containing the league’s best
offenses.
Overall Analysis:
There are a lot of good pieces here, but remember this team was 7-9 in
league play last year. I can see all of
Banks, Gillard, Armer and Wooten taking steps forward, but it still isn’t quite
enough. With other strong teams like the
two aforementioned and subtle challengers just below them like UCA, Sam Houston
and McNeese, this team is going to rack up enough losses to knock them out of
the top spot. This is a solid #3 and if
they improve as much during the 2016 season as they did during 2015, HBU could
be a serious contender in the postseason.
On a personal note, this is my favorite non-SFA team in the conference
going into the year. I love to watch
this team play and I respect Trent Herman a ton.
The next post after the weekend continues today’s theme
and is the second version of last years’ popular series titled “Replacing That
Which Is Lost” where we look at all 13 teams in terms of replacing exiting
players from 2015. Which teams can
survive their losses the best? Which
clubs might struggle to find replacements?
That’s next week in this space.
Finally, SFA fans – don’t forget that next weekend in San
Marcos is the 2016 debut of SFA VolleyBlog Radio. I’ll call all three matches live on internet
radio right here at the blog. If you can’t
be at Texas State in person, make sure you tune in to follow the ‘Jacks!!