Interview with Oral Roberts MB Jessica Pancratz and OH Sara Pope

Well, I did it.  I went a year (basically) without bringing up the name Jessica Pancratz on this website.  Readers will remember that last year I was utterly shocked when the Oral Roberts middle blocker didn't show up on All-Conference lists.  It turns out there was more to that story that I originally knew and in all honesty more than is intended for me to know.  I get that.  We rarely know exactly why things like that happen.  Still, the absurdity of her being left off the lists became a theme for me last November.  In fact, I've written several times that I think the way the Southland Conference structures its balloting for postseason honors is flawed.  Pancratz's situation aside, I think the voters last year did an excellent job.  I don't have a problem with the voting in general - instead, I have a problem with the fact that the ballot is constrained artificially by the conference.

For anyone who cares to rehash the entire "Pancratz Fiasco of 2012", you can go back and read the string of posts here for my original picks, and then here for the original post defending Pancratz and finally here for sounding off about the Southland balloting protocol

We all have certain players that aren't on our "home" teams that we appreciate watching and Pancratz has been one of those players for me the past two years.  She was a natural person to try and interview because of the posts from 2012.  Several people have asked if I had ever talked with her directly...assuming that she was keenly aware of all my lobbying.  I can honestly say yesterday was the first time I have ever spoken to her and she was not aware of my writing last year.  Maybe that was a good thing.

Nevertheless, it is actually refreshing to hear her honesty in this interview as she reflects on the honor missed.  As much as I enjoyed finally getting a chance to talk to her, I'll have to admit the conversation caught me off guard a few times.  The honesty in her answers reflected just how much these type honors can mean to athletes.  It just reinforced to me that the voting system is flawed no matter how well the research is done.  The whole balloting structure...well... as Jessica puts it in this interview..."sucks".

The other great thing about this chat is that it also showcases Sara Pope.  This newcomer-of-the-year candidate was the America East Player of the Year at Albany (NY) last year.  From the greater Tulsa area, Sara transferred to ORU prior to this season and has instantly made her mark on both the ORU offense and the Southland Conference in general.  Before the match I was commenting to a few folks that ORU may be the only collegiate team that has TWO former MVP's of other conferences on their current squad.  Libero Bruna Silva was the Player of the Year (Defense) in the Summit League before ORU joined our conference.

While this is Pancratz' senior season, Pope has one more at ORU.  As good as she's been this year it is kind of scary to imagine her taking another step forward.  If that happens, then she may be a candidate for Player of the Year honors in our conference in 2014.

ORU looks locked in to the 4 vs. 5 matchup in the Southland Tournament next week.  If that happens, then if UCA knocks off the #8 seed, we might see a repeat of last years' final in the semifinals this year.

I anticipate expanding my coverage of the conference tournament this year over and above what I have been able to do in the past.  This is often a time of year where I post frequently, so check back often.   Once we get to Corpus Christi, I anticipate scheduling multiple (sit down) interviews per day as well as on-the-spot interviews after matches.

Definitely plan to use www.sfavolleyblog.net as one of your primary SLC Tournament resources along with the conference and tournament websites.

Click Here to Listen to the Interview with Jessica Pancratz and Sara Pope

Lucky 7 ?

With one week to go in the Southland Conference regular season, the time for SFA to create a sense of hope is right now.  The 2013 season has largely been one of ups and downs with very little momentum created during the last few months.  “All is well that ends well”, they say, so let’s hope SFA can convince themselves and convince their fans that they are capable of taking down some teams with better records on paper.  If so, then there is still the chance we can head to Corpus Christi  believing that we can be the “hot” team and make a run.

So, let’s take a look at what remains for SFA and other teams that figure to have low-end seeds in the 2013 Southland Conference Tourney.  My bet is that we are headed for the #7 seed, which, as I’ll argue below, may not be too bad a spot to be in.  Before we get started, I should make clear what I think many SFA fans realize.  We haven’t locked up a spot in the tournament yet.  However, going into Tuesday’s match with Oral Roberts, our magic number is one.  One SFA win or one loss by either Lamar or McNeese does the trick.

Let’s break this down:

McNeese (7-9)

Remaining: HBU (Home), Nicholls (Away)

McNeese owns the tiebreaker with Lamar by virtue of beating the Cardinals 3-1 both times they played.  So, McNeese controls their own destiny.  If they win out and Lamar wins both of their matches, then McNeese would have the tie break over Lamar.  Both McNeese and Lamar winning both games and SFA losing both games would knock SFA out of the tournament and give the Cowgirls the #7 seed.  There is a way that McNeese could win one game and still not get in.  If Lamar wins both of their games, then Lamar would be 9-9, McNeese would be 8-10 with a win and a loss, then they get bumped out by SFA who at worst would also be 8-10, but we own the tiebreak against them.  This is a scenario that wouldn’t be advantageous for SFA given it is one of the few scenarios that gets us the #8 seed.

I’m thinking McNeese splits their last two and finishes 8-10.  However, if McNeese beats HBU on Tuesday, this could be bad news for SFA. It forces us to win in order to get the #7 seed if McNeese goes ahead and beats Nicholls too (which is likely).  Besides SFA winning, the best thing that could happen to us is HBU beating McNeese.

Lamar (7-9)

Remaining: TAMUCC (Away), HBU (Away)

Lamar is in a tough spot because they don’t own the tiebreak against either SFA or McNeese.  They are the only team that HAS to win in order to make the tournament. As of right now, they are on the outside looking in.  They need to pick up at least one win and then hope McNeese loses both games.  That would get them in the tournament as the #8 seed.  Even if SFA lost both games in this scenario, SFA would still get the #7 seed since SFA and Lamar would be 8-10 and McNeese would be 7-11.

Things really don’t look all that good for Lamar.  McNeese has a relatively comfortable match up with Nicholls on the last day of the season.  Lamar will be underdogs at TAMUCC, so there is a decent chance that both McNeese and Lamar are 7-10 going into their last game of the season.  If this is true, then SFA is automatically in no matter whether they beat ORU tomorrow or not and then Lamar would need to beat HBU and have Nicholls upset McNeese.  The Cowgirls recently swept Nicholls at home.

I’m thinking Lamar loses both and finishes 7-11 and doesn’t make the tournament.

SFA (8-8)
Remaining:  ORU (Home), Northwestern State (Home)

The ‘Jacks, believe it or not, are actually in a pretty good spot because of owning tiebreakers.  As mentioned earlier, SFA doesn’t even have to win a game in order to make it into the tournament.  If SFA finishes 8-10 and at both McNeese and Lamar also finish 8-10, then not only does SFA make it in the tournament, they avoid the #8 seed due to the tiebreak.  Of course, if SFA wins at least one game this week, then they are automatically in even if McNeese and Lamar win out.  So, we have a bit of an easy route to make it to the tournament by virtue of being one full game ahead of McNeese and Lamar in the standings AND owning the tie break against both.

I think SFA will finish in the 7-hole no matter what.  This might be a lucky spot.  It gets us out of a first round match up with UCA and gets us on the opposite side of the bracket from them.

HBU (8-7) has three games left: at McNeese and home for Sam Houston and Lamar.  To me that looks like two wins and a loss to finish at 10-8.  If that happens, then even if SFA wins out this week we would STILL fall to the #7 seed since HBU owns the tie break against us.  So, there are just a whole lot of scenarios that point to us falling into that seventh slot.

Now, if HBU only won one game and SFA won both.. we would leap frog them into the #6 slot.  We could also get the #6 seed if HBU lost all three and we won one game this week.

So, if it is most likely that SFA is the #7 seed, then who is our most likely first round opponent next week?

Northwestern State (14-2) plays UCA at home and then comes to Nacogdoches.  They own the tie break with Oral Roberts.

Sam Houston (13-3) is on the road against HBU and TAMUCC.  They own the tie break with the Demons.

Oral Roberts (11-4) plays us tomorrow, but then finishes with two relatively easy games at home against Southeastern Louisiana and New Orleans.  They own the tiebreak with SHSU.  So, ORU can’t finish in the #2 slot.  Even if they win out, they’d be 14-4 and Northwestern State at worst would be 14-4 and ORU would lose the slot on the tie break.

So, either the Demons or Bearkats will be the #2 seed. 

That SHSU/TAMUCC game on the last day of the season is very, very interesting.  Suppose UCA beats Northwestern State.  Then SHSU is in control of their fate at the #2 seed on the last day of the season if they beat HBU tomorrow.

If the ‘Jacks can prove that they can play with Top 4 seeds Oral Roberts and Northwestern State this week, then enough momentum could be gained to be in the same position as we were last year.  Remember, we beat the Demons in the first round in last year’s tourney.  I’ll be honest:  I would rather play Sam Houston in the first round than Northwestern State.  I just really don’t think we match up well with the Demons… too many offensive weapons.  If Wells-Gibson had an off day or we could keep her in check, then I don’t think Sam Houston is all that deep.  Don’t get me wrong.. both are great teams.  Remember, Sam Houston SWEPT us.  Still, if there is a team that is a little overrated going into the tourney, I think it is Sam Houston.  I don’t see them making the final, but we’ve all known that I have had to eat crow before.

Here is my pick for how things finish up:

#8 McNeese vs. #1 UCA

#5 Texas A&M Corpus-Christi vs. #4 Oral Roberts

#7 SFA vs. #2 Sam Houston

#6 HBU vs. #3 Northwestern State

The key game besides our own is HBU/McNeese  If McNeese wins tomorrow and SFA loses to ORU, then the chance we get the #8 seed goes up quite a bit. It really puts the heat on us to beat Northwestern State on the last day of the season.  That’s something I think we are capable of, but I like our chances better against ORU than against NWLA.

Honestly, if the bracket falls the way I predict, I am OK with that.  That’s not an easy road, but I think we’d be in the weak side of the bracket and thus would have the best chance at pulling some upsets.

As always, I’ll be covering the SLC Tourney in full force.. blogging all three days I am there.  There will be live chats for all SFA matches and live blogging updates for every game.  Also, as I’ve done the last two years, there will be constant interviews with as many teams and players as I can get access to.  It is an exciting time of the year, there is still a glimmer of hope that SFA will get a little steam built up behind them and then put a scare into Sam Houston or Northwestern State in the first round.

Axe’ Em ‘Jacks!   

Road Kill

With two weeks left on the Southland Conference regular season schedule, it is safe to say that SFA’s 14-13 overall record, and especially the 6-8 mark in SLC play qualifies as a disappointment.  Sure, four straight victories over the next two weeks could get us into the tournament and avoid the #8 seed.  It would also qualify as an emotional boost and establish some confidence for the first round match up.  So, all is not lost as of yet because there is still meaningful volleyball to be played.  Yet, to this point, things haven’t gone according to script.

Then again, do we have a script?  Of the seasons in recent memory there are some in which we have taken a while to establish a regular set of starters and substitution patterns.  This season qualifies as different.  There were no regular starters or rotation patterns.  Even if we play the exact same group over the last two weeks, that will hardly count as a pattern given the season is in its third month.

It is hard to know what is more inconsistent:  the overall quality of play by this years’ squad or the lineups and offensive sets that we run out there against our opponents.  Of course, the two are correlated in some way.  Still, the combinations are dizzying.  One setter offense?  Two setter offense?  Six rotation player?  Three rotation player?  On the bench?  From week to week no one knows.   Need replaced during the match?  Will that player return or sit the remainder of today?  That’s up in the air.

Now, all of the above could be taken as a criticism as to how we’ve utilized our personnel.  It could be taken to be a criticism of coaching decisions.  Maybe there are others – possibly myself included – that would have made fewer concoctions out of the lineup than what our coaching staff has, but still, it is hard to pin this years’ lack of consistent performance entirely on role changes.  Coach Humphreys and crew can never be accused of being unwilling to try something new.  I mean, I have never seen so many attempts at trying to find the magic combination as I’ve witnessed this year.  To no avail.  It hasn’t happened.

I like roles.  I think players like roles.  I find it hard to believe that players can prepare and be at their best among constant change.  Then again, this is collegiate athletics.  Adaptation is key.  Be versatile or sit on the pine.  I can understand that.  Flexibility is required when things don’t naturally settle into a working pattern. Still, it is mind blowing just how many changes have been made. Playing time and roles are largely unstable.

I haven’t mentioned one factor yet that others might instantly have thrown into the ring:  injuries.  Sure, we’ve had injuries.  Injuries affect your lineup and they certainly require that roles be fluid.  However, maybe I am in the minority here:  I don’t think our injuries a) cost us more than maybe one win and b) aren’t really all that more than what other teams have experienced.  Maybe I am wrong.  I didn’t go through every roster and check the exact time that players have been out.  However, as I’ve studied the teams we are about to play I’ve commonly come across stories of injuries.  As I’ve talked to coaches before and after matches they all tell me stories of girls being sick, hurt, having to leave the team, etc.  It’s sports.  People get hurt.

No, I don’t think injuries are/were the most important factor in our underwhelming play so far in 2013.  I think they were a factor, but I think they were secondary, if not tertiary in terms of problems.  Culprit #1?  Net defense.  We allow way too many one-one-one attacks at the net.  We don’t consistently close blocks and far too often are caught out of position giving opposing setters the chance to pick attackers that create isolation attacks repeatedly on us at the net.  Simply put, we have statistical leaders in blocks, but overall… I don’t think we are a good blocking team.  And there IS a difference between statistically generating blocks and being a good blocking team.  In fact, a lot of being a good blocking team may very well never translate to actual blocks.  An attack that is slowed down – even barely touched at the net – is more likely to be dug (and dug to target) than forcing a back row player to slow down a full powered swing.  Secondly, and maybe more importantly, a closed block forces attackers to choose alternate lanes to swing into.  These alternate lanes are attackers secondary choices and they can be more easily read by back row defenders.  When only one lane is open, then that lane can be better anticipated by the back row player.

We don’t do those two things:  1) we don’t consistently touch balls at the net to help out the dig and 2) we don’t take away alleys for hitters so that balls can be funneled down one lane.

The result:  Our opponents score more easily than we would prefer.

Now, I said injuries were an issue, but maybe issue #3.  So, what about Issue #2?  Well, if net defense is at the top of the “needs improvement” list, then next in line is the same darn thing I’ve written about for season after season:  It helps (tremendously) if you have one go-to-girl that can score from anywhere on the court and is on the court at all times.  Middle blockers don’t play all the way around.  Plus, middle blockers are supposed to “block”. At least, their title suggests so. To continue, if your blockers are having trouble slowing down opposing offenses, then splitting their attention by having them carry a heavy offensive responsibility is only further increasing the chance that they won’t consistently contribute on both sides of the ball.  No, the players that should be your go-to six rotation players are definitively outside hitters.

Earlier in the year, I argued for Kaitlyn Granger to be “left alone” and just put out there for six rotations.  Recently, this is exactly how she’s been used and I like that.  I just think she is the kind of player that will play her best if she is in the game consistently, not playing then sitting, then playing then sitting.  However, the suggestion that Granger play six-rotations was not with the thought that she would be the go-to on offense.  The go-to’s are clearly Ivy and Bates.  One of them, in my mind, should ALWAYS play six rotations.  Here is where the injuries put a snarl into the plan… maybe.

Ivy’s knee and Bates’ ankle at times this year have kept them out of the lineup and I understand that each needed to be gradually worked back into playing shape and build up stamina and confidence in their health.  But at some point, once they’ve proven that they can play, then you gotta have one of them out there at all times.  Otherwise, you don’t have that go-to on the floor to get you out of a funky rotation or really even to create a diversion for the opponent.

Its’ nice to have three solid offensive choices on the floor as much as often to force the defense to respect the entire net.   Typically, SFA has two players on the floor that I think the defense has to worry about and unfortunately, in some rotations, at some points in the year, we have had one decent offensive option on the floor in our weakest rotations.

Offense actually has become  MORE of a problem as the year has progressed.  SFA is hitting .199 as a team – which is actually 40 points higher than last year.  However, we have hit .174 in conference matches - meaning that we were having more attacking success earlier in the year as opposed to the last month or so. 

Look back over the last months’ games and identify the one where you think SFA had its best offensive showing.  If you don’t pick the home game against Lamar, then it has to be a candidate.  That match was against a decent opponent and we were in control for virtually the entire afternoon.  The net defense was better that day and in terms of actually blocks, we basically doubled the Cardinals up. 

The offense was sharp and how did we do it?  Bates (20 kills, .500) and Ivy (11 kills, .375) led the way and Granger did what I mentioned above.  She was a complimentary piece – limiting her errors, which she has to do – and came within one kill and one dig of a double double.  The offense was led by the outside/right side hitters and the middles blocked balls.  Plus, Madison Martin played out of her mind on the back row, digging up things left and right.  Aside:  The girl can play.. no doubt… I love me some Madison Martin, but someone hitting negative .046 isn’t an attacker.  Her role is as a back row defender and passer and she’s damn good at it.  However, giving her 20-25 swings a night just shouldn’t be in the game plan.

So, not enough net defense and no consistent six-rotation scorer than can bail you out of a tough run.  That’s my top two in terms of why we are sitting at .500 and on the bubble of the tournament.  Everyone knows we still have a shot.  I mean, c’mon, suppose we beat both SELA and UNO and even split at home between ORU and Northwestern St.  That’d be 9-9 in SLC play, maybe we’d tie with someone we had the breaker on and earn the #7 seed.  That’s not terrible, because then we would be opposite UCA in the bracket and play someone in the first and second round that we could have complete confidence against!  It can be done!

However, to finish this up and make what I think is my overall point… consider this “leaderboard”.  The statistic that I think encapsulates my point here is looking at the DIFFERENCE between attack percentage and opponent attack percentage.  You want this to be positive.  If it is negative then your opponents are swinging at a higher percentage than you.  Now, if this is negative AND your own attack percentage is below league average, then that’d be a double whammy… and that’s precisely SFA’s situation.

CONFERENCE ONLY (ATTACK % - OPPONENT ATTACK %)

1. UCA            .151

2. ORU            .094

T3. SHSU       .057

T3. NWLA       .057

5. TAMUCC    .039

6. Lamar          .016

7. McNeese    .009

8. HBU            -.007

9. UIW             -.032

T10. ACU        -.044

T10. SELA      -.044

12. SFA           -.047

13. NICH         -.072

14. UNO          -.201

The top five teams in the conference are also the five that top this list.  The teams we are fighting with for a tournament spot (Lamar, McNeese, HBU) are all at basically zero on that list.  Draw your own final conclusion.  I think I’ve made a sufficient case.

I’ve already written once this season about opposing hitters feasting on us.  If you are looking for a tell-tale sign as to whether we have anything left in the tank for the last three weeks, don’t talk about injuries. 

Instead, how about we ride our two prize horses named Ivy and Bates as much as we can and everyone else on the front row start slowing some opposing attacks down on a consistent basis?

Step Up.