STATS 101: Holes to Fill...Hey! Free Pizza!

Well, classes have started back at SFA and that gives me a chance to take you through a little feature we'll call 'Stats 101' here at the blog. Woah. wait.. stop running away.. hey...FREE PIZZA!!!. There, I got you back. Read on and you might win a free pizza.

All we're gonna do here is look at some percentages. Due to college volleyball having short rosters, the number of players leaving and the resulting number of newcomers can often have a significant impact on clubs from year to year.

There are four basic statistics that are tallied in every match. Now, don't get me wrong, there are more items than this that are kept track of, but kills, assists, blocks and digs are four terms that any volleyball fan is familiar with. Let's take a look at the Southland Conference in terms of the percentage of 2008 stats they return in 2009. The basics here are that the lower these percentages are, the more a particular team has to look elsewhere for contributions in 2009. We'll start with kills:

Percentage of 2008 kills returning for 2009:
1. Northwestern St. 89%
2. Southeastern La. 88%
3. UTSA 82%
4. UTA 81%
5. Central Arkansas 72%
6. Nicholls 68%
7. McNeese 61%
8. SFA 58%
9. Texas State 56%
10. Lamar 53%
11. Sam Houston 52%
12. TAMUCC 24%

As you'll see throughout what follows, Northwestern State and Southeastern Louisiana basically return the same team they had in 2008. Those two schools lost basically nothing in transitioning from '08 to '09. Notice that we are near the lower end of this scale which accents what Ben and I have been blogging in our respective domains: We will need some outside hitters to step up in '09. On to assists:

Percentage of 2008 assists returning for 2009:
1. Southeastern La. 100%
T2. Northwestern St. 99%
T2. McNeese 99%
4. UTA 98%
5. Nicholls 97%
T6. Central Arkansas 93%
T6. Texas State 93%
8. UTSA 88%
9. Sam Houston 80%
10. Lamar 27%
11. SFA 19%
12. TAMUCC 16%

OK. This is easy to understand. Either a team returns its primary setter or not. The clear division in the numbers is explained by just a few simple facts. Every one except us and Corpus returns their primary setter from 2008. What about Lamar, you ask? Well, their setter Adrianne Meengs got mono last year and had to be replaced. That's why their percentage is so low. It turns out that the numbers above contribute little to my overall point, which you'll see shortly, but consider this: The setter position will be really interesting to look at THIS TIME NEXT YEAR. Seven of the conferences 12 schools have a senior setter as the single primary quarterback. So, there will be a lot of inexperienced setters in the conference starting in 2010.

Percentage of 2008 blocks returning for 2009:
1. Northwestern State 92%
2. UTA 86%
3. Southeastern La. 85%
T4. McNeese 69%
T4. UTSA 69%
T6. SFA 68%
T6. Nicholls 68%
8. Central Arkansas 57%
9. Texas State 49%
10. Lamar 47%
11. Sam Houston 42%
12. TAMUCC 26%

One thing that is emerging is that Lamar lost a significant fraction of their 2008 contribution. I'll admit I hadn't quite realized that until doing this little exercise. Secondly, you've noticed that TAMUCC lost basically everything. That includes their coach as they are the only team in the conference to have a new person at the helm. We move on to digs...

Percentage of 2008 digs returning for 2009:
1. Southeastern La. 99%
2. Northwestern St. 93%
3. McNeese 89%
4. UTA 86%
5. Texas State 78%
6. UTSA 77%
7. Sam Houston 76%
8. Nicholls 75%
9. Central Arkansas 68%
10. SFA 61%
11. TAMUCC 55%
12. Lamar 48%

We came out lower on this list than I would have guessed. That serves as a reminder of how well rounded a player Lauren Railey was. She tallied over 300 digs which was near what a few of the liberos in the conference posted last year. Again, look at Lamar.

Now, can we summarize all this to see what the main points are of all this? Sure, a simple way to do it is to average (or total) the ranks across the four categories. Averaging the percentages themselves may not be the best idea given the split in the setting numbers that we saw above. I'll jump ahead and say that setting really doesn't make much of a difference in the final tally. If setting is removed all together only McNeese and UTSA flip-flop in this final list - all else stays the same.

Final List: Rank of Teams Based on What Percentage of 2008 they return for 2009:
1. Northwestern State [Returns the Most From '08]
2. Southeastern La.
3. UTA
4. UTSA
5. McNeese
6. Nicholls
7. Central Arkansas
8. Texas State
9. SFA
10. Sam Houston
11. Lamar
12. TAMUCC [Returns the Least from '08]

Please, understand. This isn't a ranking of a teams' prowess for 2009. Its only a list of what they return from last year. What they return might be great, or it might be paltry.

So, what do we learn? First, notice that a good many of the preseason picks to finish in the top half of the conference are in the bottom half of this list. This may be more evidence for what we've been hearing and blogged about previously: "The conference is wide open". What do I mean? Well, UCA, Texas State, Lamar, Sam and SFA are all "top half" picks, but they have the biggest holes to fill. The middle of the conference from last year returns a core of their players. They are in the position of letting veterans emerge rather than having to count on freshmen and transfers to fill holes. Will that cause the gap between the top and bottom of 2008 to collapse inward in 2009? Maybe. But, I'll vote no on that. However, this is one more way to see the potential parity in the conference.

See, Southeastern La. , Northwestern State and UTA only won only 12 conference games between them. They are returning a lot, but its mediocre at best. Their veterans basically all returning does what? Get them to .500 in conference at best? Even if they make that four or five conference game improvement, it just puts them in the hunt for a tourney spot. That's not enough to leap into the top tier.

Who comes out looking better in this analysis to me is UTSA. They were 11-5 in the tough side of the conference last year and they return a decent amount from their 2008 squad - especially offensively. Remember, the coaches picked Lamar and UTSA nearly dead even in the West and I have to wonder if the one SID that picked them to win the conference was aware of some of what is presented here.

Who comes out looking worse is clearly Lamar. They've got a good fraction of their 2008 production gone. Despite getting Meengs healthy, it is fair to say based on the numbers above that half of their overall production from 2008 is gone.

What this says to me is this: I am inclined at this point to align my thoughts on the conference more along the lines of the coaches poll than the SIDs. The coaches see Lamar and UTSA as pretty much equal and this analysis has convinced me of that position. Before this exercise, I was more inclined to think of Lamar as the stronger squad. Now, I'm not so sure.

Think for a second. Texas State is a consensus top pick. But then what? Central Arkansas isn't eligible for the tournament. If, and I accent IF, Texas State comes out on top, then the #2 seed could be a major toss up. Now, I'm not writing the Bobcats in as #1 and all that. I'm just saying that if Texas State does win the regular season crown then there could be a real dogfight for the second position in the conference tournament. How SFA, Lamar, and UTSA do against each other could really mean a lot. The fact that we are in the West helps us here. Remember, UTSA will play on their home floor in the conference tournament. That's an interesting twist in all this too. Finally, we shouldn't forget about Sam Houston and McNeese. They could throw a wrench into things as well.

Now, about that pizza. Ok, it's this simple. If you want a free pizza do this:

1. Go join our Facebook group. The link is on the sidebar. [If already a member, go to Step 2]
2. Then, send me an e-mail at gmiller@sfasu.edu with subject line "pizza".
3. Get a friend to do the above two things as well.
4. You and your friend have to come to Wednesday's game. If you don't come to the game...no pizza.
5. THE FIRST PERSON TO DO THE ABOVE FOUR STEPS AND COME APPROACH ME AT THE SCORER'S TABLE BEFORE THE GAME GETS THE FREE PIZZA. YOU HAVE TO BE FIRST.

I am the tall guy who sits near the visitors bench. Study my dashing photo and come find me. But most importantly...get loud in the Coliseum on Wednesday at 7:00. Create a huge home court advantage for our girls! See you there!

LIVE BLOG FROM HUNTSVILLE, TX

Read from the bottom up to read in real-time order.

9: 18 PM

That's a wrap from Hunstville. A closing thought on ULL is that they are not the same team as they were last year. Their freshmen clearly are playing a very big role. They could have easily staged a comeback here tonight and won the whole thing. They won't be a push over in my opinion. But, I think we are a stronger club than SHSU and I'd certainly favor us next Wednesday. But, ULL definitely had some impressive moments. Fogler hitting .364 was pretty nifty. I'll see all of you in Johnson Coliseum on Wednesday night.

9:15 PM

As expected, SHSU and ULL dominate all tourney team.. One player each from UTPA and Southern Utah receieve honors. Krolikowski and Fogler make all-tourney for ULL...watch for them next Wednesday. For SHSU, Kolbe and Stewart named to all-tourney. Stewart must have been honored for previous play...only seven kills in this match while hitting under .100. MVP of tourney was Anna Ferguson.


9:10 PM

For ULL: Freshman Fogler leads all players with 18 kills. Freshmen Krolikowski nets 12 kills and fellow rookie Hanley finishes with 9. Four players on each squad with double digit digs. Lindsay Brown for ULL leads all with 25 digs. All Tourney announcements coming...

9:07 PM

Kolbe finishes it off with two straight kills, 15-11. SHSU wins 3-2. Wrap up in just a bit.

9:06 PM

Stewart knocks one down again.. SHSU 13-10

9:04 PM

Stewart with her biggest hit of the night. SHSU 12-8.

9:03 PM

An ace from Haas and another kill pushes it to 11-5 SHSU...looks like their gonna get it in five

9:01 PM

Great fifth set so far. Very scrappy play - some awesome digs. SHSU leads 8-5 at the switch...has momentum

8:55 PM

Kolbe waking up in set five. SHSU leads 5-3.

8:52 PM

Freshman Fogler for ULL with 16 kills and hitting .345. Sam not stopping her. She also has five blocks. Ferguson 13 kills for Sam, Kolbe up to 11. Frehman Stewart doing nothing. Its all Ferguson and Kolbe for Sam. Libero for ULL Brown up to 21 digs. Here we go to five...

8:51 PM

SHSU gets flat out abused in set 4. ULL wins 25-13. We go to set five.

8:44 PM

Could be headed for five tonight. ULL leads 18-8 in fourth set. The block for SHSU is gone. Their back row is diving left and right and can't get to balls 'cause front row isn't slowing anything down right now.

8:34 PM

Wow. SHSU appears out of gas. ULL off to a 7-1 run early in set 4. Same Freshmen for ULL doing the damage early in set 4. Kolbe still out. SHSU is getting nothing from anybody not named Ferguson at this point.

8:30 PM

SHSU hit -.041 in set three -only five kills in entire set. Bad, but partly because ULL is deflecting a lot of stuff at the net.

8:27 PM

SHSU never really in this set. ULL takes it easily 25-16. Freshman Alyssa Hanley has a nice set for ULL (four kills, two blocks). Freshmen really the story for the Cajuns. Main go to on offense is Krolikowski and then they have three 6-2 freshmen that are doing a nice job at the net as well. Three Leading attackers at this point for ULL are all freshmen (Krolikowski, Fogler, Hanley). Kolbe: no kills in set 3. SHSU leads 2-1.

8:18 PM

SHSU using this set to look at other people since they got behind. Ferguson and Kolbe sitting, as is Loving. ULL leads 18-10.

8:12 PM

SHSU goes to freshman setter Michelle Miller as ULL stretches lead to 12-4.

8:08 PM

ULL comes out strong in set 3. Leads 6-1. One thing I've noticed about SHSU Fresh Kelli Stewart...she doesn't react to every little negative thing they way Kolbe did as a Freshman (and is a little tonight too). Stewart appears calm and cool, even chuckling a few times, even though she really hasn't been effective so far.

7:54 PM

Sam finishes off the set and leads 2-0 at intermission. ULL only hitting .086 thru first two sets. Krolikowski 6 kills for ULL leads team. Kolbe has 9 kills to lead all. Loving with 5 kills from the setter position for Sam. ULL Libero Lindsay Brown has 11 digs & leads all in that category. ULL looking a bit sluggish in second set from a long tourney.

7:53

Sam wins a really good and long rally with Kelli Stewart kill.. big momentum builder..leads 23-21 in set 2.

7:47 PM

An effective use of a timeout by SHSU coach Brenda Gray.. after getting behind, Sam rattles off several consecutive points to take lead 16-15 in set 2.

7:30 PM

SHSU completes comeback in set 1 - wins 25-23. Kolbe 6 kills in set, Ferguson a whopping six blocks. Niether team hitting overly well. ULL looks much stronger when Libero rotates up to front row and then out in favor of the twin towers...otherwise block can't hang with Kolbe and Ferguson is my take so far.

7:25 PM

Anna Ferguson taking over - SHSU ties it at 21.

7:20 PM

When the Libero rotates out, ULL is running a successful block tandem with Freshmen Mandi Gavin and Bethany Fogler...both 6-2 and doing a good job at the net. ULL leads 18-16 first set.

7:14 PM

ULL plays with a pretentious swagger...bench very talkative and a bit of a smug feel to the whole club...don't like it. ULL leads 12-10 first set.

7:05 PM

SHSU starting two freshman... Kelli Stewart from the strong HS program at nearby Magnolia and Libero Jamie Haas.

6:59 PM

Sam has broken with recruiting tradition...only one blonde among five newcomers

6:54 PM

ULL just took off warm up tops...its official.. they've got some of the ugliest black and red jersey's I have ever seen....hideous. I hope they wear these fashion messes Wednesday so everyone can get a look at the horror.

6:50 PM

Two Rajun Cajuns to watch for.. Freshman OH Ariel Krolikowski (hit over .300 so far) and JR OH Amie Goodwin. They've been the two go to hitters for ULL's first three matches in this tourney. SHSU PA announcer just tried to do the starting lineups with 11 minutes left on the clock...rookie.

6:37 PM

ULL pretty sloppy in warmups...plus they've got a guy assistant coach who is trying to prove how hard he can hit to the girls during drills...bouncing all around like a jelly bean. Goofy.

6:19 PM

UTPA is about to finish off Delaware State...match has been pretty bad. Delaware State in particular is very weak. A few folks starting to file into the Coliseum. Time to grab some pre-game chow.

5:46 PM

Watching Delaware State play UTPA... Delaware State has a girl whose 6'5"..and here's the weird thing...she's from Spring (north of Houston). That's a long way from home...and a lotta local schools that decided to pass...so that tells ya something. She's a legit 6'5"...I am standing a few feet away from her.

5:00 PM

Set up here in Huntsville. Here's a recap of this week's action around the SLC to get you primed for tonight's live blog. First, off the 'Jacks leave the state of Illinois with a 2-2 split as again today we win one and lose one. In our last game of the tourney, host Northern Illinois swept SFA 3-0. Amber Williams-Roberts led the way for the 'Jacks with 13 kills. Elsewhere around the SLC this weekend:

Central Arkansas: Beats HBU & loses to Rice...playing Oklahoma later tonight.

Lamar: Lost to Cal State Fullerton...plays Idaho and Appalachian State later.

McNeese: Beats Arkansas-Little Rock and then pulls off a nifty win against SEC foe Mississippi State...plays Jackson State later.

Nicholls: Lost all three matches played (Rice, Oklahoma and Houston Baptist)

Sam Houston: Has won all three matches played so far (Southern Utah, UTPA and Delaware State)...playing ULL later tonight.

SE Louisiana: Lost all three matches played (Baylor, Indiana, and Houston)

TAMUCC: Beat Norfolk State yesterday, lost to UTEP today...playing Texas Southern later.

Texas State: Lost all three matches played albeit against tougher competition than most. (Missouri, Ole Miss, and BYU)

UTSA: Beat North Texas yesterday, but lost to Northern Colorado earlier today...playing SMU now.

UTA: Lost to both Oral Roberts and Illinois State earlier...playing Gardner-Webb tonight.

Northwestern State: Couldn't get any friends to play with them. No matches until next week.

Noon:

Later today we will get started with our live blog from Huntsville covering our first home opponent Louisiana-Lafayette against host Sam Houston.

The 'Jacks just beat Western Illinois 3-1. SFA was able to go to their twin setting approach with Lo picking up 22 assists and Buckner dishing out 18. Three 'Jacks in double-figure kills and the team hit an impressive .311 for the match. Hanlan scooped 19 digs and one very good sign in my opinion was that Daron was integral to the offense with 10 kills against only 2 errors while hitting .348.

SFA plays host Northern Illinois at 2:00 before flying back to Texas. I am still in Nacogdoches, but will head to Huntsville shortly. We will update you on SFA/NIU when I arrive.