Sam Houston and SFA: Two Different Formulas

A lot has been made of SFA's balanced offense this year as the 'Jacks currently have amassed 24 wins, half of those in conference play.  SFA will earn of the top seeds in this years' Southland Conference Tournament and the same is likely to be said of the rival Bearkats from Sam Houston.  But these two teams couldn't be built more differently, especially on offense and that's what we are going to take a look at today.

To prepare for this post, I scanned the statistics of all 13 Southland Conference clubs and started by writing down the Top 5 kill leaders on each team.  Then, I computed percentage of kills that each of these players were responsible for on their respective teams.  In this way, we can easily find out which teams depend the most on just two or three attackers and which teams tend to spread the offense around a bit more.  Let's get right to the results:

First, let's look at the role of the primary attacker.  The average team leader in kills in the Southland Conference is responsible for 23.8% of her team's terminations.  Here's how Sam Houston's leader (Jordan Vaughn) and SFA's kill leader (Haley Coleman) stack up in the ranks of percent of kills for their team:

Percentage of Team Total Kills By Kill Leader:

1. Vaughn, Sam Houston, 30.5%

2. Rogers, Northwestern State, 28.4%

3. Banks, Houston Baptist, 27.6%

...

12. Haley Coleman, SFA, 20.0%

Southland Average: 23.8%

This immediately points out the fact that SFA is not anywhere near as reliant on Coleman as Sam Houston is on Vaughn.  This may be obvious to you, but it's our first piece of evidence - and a big one - that SFA's offense is truly spread around this year.  Looking at some numbers a different, way, Vaughn averages 11.3 attacks per set compared to Coleman's 8.3.  That's a full three opportunities per set higher for Vaughn which equates to over 10 per match on average.  For SFA, those extra 10-12 balls per match are distributed to other players.  Let this soak in a minute before we move on. SFA is tops in the league in attack percentage and has been in the top third in the conference in kills per set all season long by not relying on a single attacker.

But, we often talk about pin hitters (plural) as carrying a heavy load, so what happens when we expand the percentages above to include the top duos in the conference in terms of workload.  As you see below, the story doesn't really change.  In fact, it accents even more how heavily Sam Houston depends on fewer attackers than anyone in the league.

Percentage of Team Total Kills By Top Two Kill Leaders:

1. Vaughn and White, Sam Houston, 56.8%

2. Banks and Wooten, Houston Baptist, 50.3%

3. Rogers and Brister, Northwestern State, 46.1%

...

10. Coleman and Daron, SFA, 38.2%

Southland Average: 42.9%

There are lots of interesting things in this leaderboard as well.  First, notice that Sam Houston and Houston Baptist are the only two schools in the conference that get more than half of their team kills from two players.  Again, illustrating balance in the offense, notice that SFA is 10th of 13th here.  Again, the more spread around the offense is, the lesser these percentages tend to be when incorporating just the top two team leaders.  But, probably most interesting is that SFA is one of only four schools in the conference to have its second leading scorer not be an outside hitter. The other three are UIW (Sarea Alexander, MB and Breyauna Hall, MB, tied for 2nd), McNeese (Shanna Spree, MB) and AMCC (Madison Green, RS).

Sam Houston depends on getting 18% more kills from its top two attackers than does SFA.  To look at this another way, SFA has given 41% of the set balls to our two leading primary outside hitters to date (Coleman and Evans). Sam Houston has set Vaughn and White a whopping 57% of the time -easily the highest percentage in the league.  That 16% difference in those two numbers equates to roughly 550 to 600 balls that have been set to girls other than the two primary outside hitters for SFA.  That's a lot of sets!  Plus, once again it illustrates with numbers just how much more diverse our offense has become and just how different it is than Sam Houston's attack.

Now, to REALLY show you how top heavy the Bearkat offense is, let's repeat this one last time by calculating the percentages of kills earned by the top THREE kill leaders on each Southland team.  Look at how much higher the Bearkat percentage is that even the second team on this leaderboard!

Percentage of Team Total Kills by Top Three Kill Leaders:

1. Vaughn, White and Cunningham, Sam Houston, 77.6%

2. Banks, Wooten and Gillard, Houston Baptist, 63.6%

3. Rogers, Brister and Seaton, Northwestern State, 62.1%

...

10. Coleman, Daron and Evans, SFA, 55.1%

Southland Average: 59.2%

Wow!  That's 14% more kills from the top three at Sam Houston that the next closest clubs on that list.  There is a 22% difference between SHSU and SFA on this list and again SFA comes in 10th illustrating that we are way more than three deep in terms of who generates kills for our offense.  By the way, in case you are wondering about the teams that come out MORE balanced on offense than SFA:  None of the teams ranking more evenly distributed than SFA project to make the tournament with the exception of Texas A&M - Corpus Christi. What this tells me is that the balanced offenses in the conference either are offenses that just can't find girls to generate kills or have multiple weapons like AMCC and SFA. 

It should be noted here that AMCC's "balance" is not achieved in the same way as SFA's.  The Islanders balance comes when you look at the second through fifth leading kill generators.  Brittany Gilpin leads AMCC with 281 kills, which is a ton more than second place leader Madison Green at 160.  But look at what happens with AMCC when you look at #2-#5:  Green (160), Nicholson (148), Doud (138) and Moran (134).  That is VERY evenly distributed. So, the Islanders (obviously) have one strong attacker and then a ton of balanced looks behind her.

SFA's balance is achieved in its top 3 kill leaders and then the mega-efficient Makenzee Hanna behind them.  To wit, Coleman has 282 kills; Daron has 256 and Evans 239.  That's the primary balance for SFA.  Then you factor in Hanna who is our fourth leading terminator, but is hitting .357 to lead the conference.

There is another way that we can illustrate SFA's balanced offense in 2017. A measure called standard deviation can be used to measure the spread among a set of numbers.  The lower the standard deviation, the more consistent or more "bunched" a set of numbers are around the average.  The higher the standard deviation, the more spread or diverse a set of numbers are. 

When factoring in the top four attackers on each team, SFA's standard deviation ranks 9th in the conference.  Sam Houston has the HIGHEST standard deviation whether you factor in the primary three, four or five attackers on each team.  So, no matter how you slice it, the Bearkat offense is the offense that depends heaviest on its top three.  In fact, contributing to this highest standard deviation in the conference is the fact that SHSU is the ONLY team in the conference whose fourth leader in kills hasn't even tallied 100 terminations.  Madison Wallace is fourth on the Bearkats in kills with just 91.  Makenzee Hanna is 4th for SFA and has more than TWICE that many (186). In fact, among all 4th leading scorers in the conference only Megan Nash of UCA (214) and Alexis Warren of NSU (190) have more kills than Hanna.  Nash is hitting .319 while playing in the middle like Hanna.  Warren is an outside hitter with a .074 attack percentage.  Ouch.

To put a bow on this, Sam Houston's offense by either measuring percentages of kills by their leaders are spread in the Top 4 or 5 attackers is clearly the most dependent offense in the league on the fewest girls.  But, of course, the Bearkats have traditionally had offenses like this and it has served them well in 2017 as they come in to Saturday's match up in 3rd place and they project as a dangerous team to play in the postseason.

For SFA, their percentages of kills from their top kill generators rank below conference average - which is GOOD when trying to demonstrate that you have a balanced attack.  It means that you are LESS reliant on just two or three people to generate kills.  We were able to show SFA's balance by also calculating the spread in the kill totals for the SFA leaders and showing it is one of the lowest in the league.  This proves SFA has had a more uniform or even distribution of attacks compared to the league due to the low spread in these numbers. Sam Houston's standard deviation is much higher than any other Southland club.

With Sam Houston, you know what you are going to get:  A WHOLE LOT of Jordan Vaughn, Brooke White and Taylor Cunningham.  With SFA, one night it might be Haley Coleman leading the way.  The next night it could be Danae Daron or Makenzee Hanna.  Another night, Corin Evans might put up a double-double. Mixed in all of that is the chance for Peyton Redmond to get 10 kills like she did last night or maybe Anyia Williams will put up big numbers.

It is clear we have two different winning formulas for two different clubs.  Enjoy watching both of these teams in the final week of the season and in the Southland Conference Tournament.  It sure will be interesting to see which style of offense can succeed the most in November.

Half Way Home and No Clear Favorite

Going into the second weekend in October, we are roughly half way through the 2017 Southland Conference Volleyball slate. While some clubs have sifted down to the cellar, there appears to be no single favorite as we move to the second half.  Lord knows I am never to diss the Demons of Northwestern State again, but will all due respect to both the Natchitoches bunch and an improved squad from Lake Charles, we appear to have a five team fight on our hands for the next month.  So, our focus in this post is to take a look at the top clubs in the standings, recap their success to this point, and illuminate their remaining schedule and point out a possible difference maker down the stretch.  Let's go in order of the current standings as we trek through the front runners.

Sam Houston State (7-0 on 10/13)

Strong Conference Wins: at HBU

So Far:  It's arguable that among the teams at the top, the Kats have had the easiest schedule to this point.  They've played Nicholls twice along with Southeastern Louisiana and the up-and-down squad from New Orleans.  The win against HBU on the road was huge as it legitimized the strong start and the undefeated status of Sam Houston.  Around the league, few folks I talk to really "like" this club and to me that's just code speak for "we don't want to play them".  They're different - they've always been different and I'm not sure I'm 100% bought in yet.  However, one or two more wins against top tier teams and I'll be on board.  Two things I wasn't sure about at the start of the year with this crew were how Jacyln Ward was going to do at running Sam's hit-it-from-everywhere offense and the Bearkat back line.  Ward's been solid so that answers at least one concern.  One thing to note is how much more efficient Brooke White has been this season.  She is currently hitting .220, which is up from .193 a year ago and .151 during her sophomore campaign.

Difference Maker: Floor defense.  I'm not convinced it's that good.  The emphasis here is clearly on the guns of Jordyn Vaughn, Brooke White and Taylor Cunningham.  They'll live and die by how those three go.

Remaining Schedule:

Home: UIW, AMCC, ACU, LU, SFA

Road: NSU, UCA, AMCC, UIW

Prediction: They'll lose two of the matches against the top teams and one more to someone they'd be favored against and finish 13-3.

Central Arkansas (6-1 on 10/13)

Strong Conference Wins:  Home against HBU and AMCC

So Far:  Better than people thought.  I think SFA caught them early before they figured a few more things out.  Plus, frankly, we played pretty well against them and they really didn't play all that well in Nacogdoches.  The steady hands of Elizabeth Armstrong (who gets a lot of praise in conversations around the league) and the front line that includes senior Megan Nash and the SLC's best right-side in Samantha Anderson can be lethal.  The talent is there, but probably the best thing going for this club is an incredibly weak schedule going forward.  Like Sam Houston, I still see some issues regarding back row defense.  UCA has played a freshman in the libero spot (Emily Doss), and she's held her own, but down the stretch this could be an area where they get tested as well.  In a recent match against UIW, no Sugar Bear had more than 6 digs.

Difference Makers:  Can I pick floor defense and defensive consistency, in general, again?  That and Haley Tippett continuing to be a bit more efficient are key.  She's at .174, up over 20 points from last year, but that mark is still below conference average for a left-side attacker.

Remaining Schedule:

Home: ACU, SHSU, McN, NICH

Road: McN, SLU, UNO, NSU, HBU

Prediction:  They lose only to HBU down the stretch, finish 14-2, win the regular season title, but don't make it to the conference tournament championship as not having to play AMCC, SFA or SHSU twice comes back to bite them.

Stephen F. Austin (5-1 on 10/13)

Strong Conference Wins: Central Arkansas

So Far:  The balanced offense has given opponents fits as SFA has consistently been in the Top 50 in the nation in attack percentage.  The emergence of Corin Evans as a complete player and Haley Coleman drastically cutting down on errors has made the 'Jacks offense one of the best in the conference.  Lexus Cain is an easy pick for the top libero talent among the five contenders here.  SFA has had a lot of "good" teams in recent years without being able to elevate to "greatness".  The question is:  Can the team that everyone knows is always going to be in the hunt finish strong and get over the tournament drought?  Two matches against AMCC and a late season road date with Sam Houston well tell a lot.

Difference Maker:  Anyia Williams.  SFA got a huge spark in 2016 once they settled on Ann Hollas running the offense.  Inserting Freshman Middle Blocker Anyia Williams into the lineup could potentially strengthen the net defense even more and make the offense just flat out too potent for anyone to stop.

Remaining Schedule:

Home: SLU, McN, NICH, AMCC, LU

Road: AMCC, UNO, SLU, ACU, SHSU

Prediction:  13-3.  Other than AMCC, the home slate isn't particularly tough.  I worry a little bit about the road match at ACU being a "trap" game despite the Wildcats underperforming to this point.  That's right before the match with Sam Houston and a letdown in Abilene would have seeding implications and possibly take some late season air out of the SFA sails.

Houston Baptist (6-2 on 10/13)

Strong Conference Wins:  Home vs. SFA

So Far:  Everyone knows I bleed purple, but I've always been real direct and out front about being as objective as I can.  As much as I love our front line and as strong as the triple threat at Sam is, and as good as the UCA attackers are.. here is my pick of a front row.  I'll take Wooten, Banks and Gillard over anybody.  What if SFA and HBU joined forces?  Could you imagine a lineup of Wooten and Banks at OH, Gillard and Hanna in the middle, Hollas setting, Daron on the RS and Cain at libero?  That team would go 16-0.  HBU has some awesome players and will prove to be dangerous all season long.  They are first or second in every team statistic that matters except being third in attack percentage among SLC clubs.  They are legit - and the five-set loss to the Bearkats does nothing to change my opinion about them.

Difference Makers:  Again, we have a strong team that has in recent years never been known for outstanding back row play.  But, what about setting down the stretch?  Abby Gargus?  Madison O'Brien?  Let's see what happens there.  I need to investigate what's up with the switching back and forth.  There's a story in there I don't know about.  I didn't travel to HBU this year, so I didn't get a face-to-face chat in with any of the HBU brass when we played there.

Remaining Schedule:

Home: ACU, UCA, NSU, UNO, SLU

Road: NSU, AMCC, UIW

Prediction:  13-3 as they lose one of the matches against AMCC or UCA and steam roll everyone else.  I will have my eye on the upcoming road match at Northwestern State, however.  That could be their "trap" match.  A loss there would lose them a seed or two in the tournament.

Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (6-2 on 10/13)

Strong Conference Wins: None

So Far:  Searching for a 2017 identity.  They still wear the title of champs until someone else finishes at the top, but the scare at UNO, dropping a set to Nicholls and then the sweep at the hands of Northwestern State have certainly created doubt.  A win against SFA would help their cause, but coming up they have a really rough three game stretch at SHSU, home against HBU and a road date at SFA.  The three seniors -  Brittany Gilpin, Kristyn Nicholson, and Madeleine Doud have been their usual stellar selves and Madison Woods has played admirably in the off-colored jersey.  Let's be honest though:  Kate Klepetka leaving for Texas Tech and Madi Fitzsimmons getting hurt make this a different club.  No one else around the league is crying for them, though.

Difference Maker:  Net Defense.  This team can't block.  For a point of reference, HBU has right at twice as many team blocks at Texas A&M - Corpus Christi in roughly the same number of sets. Only Southeastern Louisiana and Nicholls have fewer blocks per set overall.  In conference play, the numbers are even worse.

Remaining Schedule:

Home: SFA, HBU, UIW, SHSU, ACU

Road: ACU, SHSU, SFA

Prediction:  12-4 at best with that schedule.  11-5 might be a better choice.  Five games against SFA, SHSU and HBU in the last eight will really test their mettle. If they win four or all of those five, then watch out... there still may be enough magic in the bottle that washed up on the Island shore.

I started this post and I'll end with a short discussion of Northwestern State.  They deserve a ton of credit for their win against the Islanders.  Regan Rogers was fantastic in that match.  They have HBU, Sam Houston, and Central Arkansas all at HOME down the stretch.  They have to go to HBU as well.  So, they have some tough tests ahead, but if they split those four, then they very much could earn a top-seed in the tournament.  The jury is still out, but there is still plenty of time for the Demons to keep improving and cause a whole lot of trouble.  I'll still pick them as the #6 seed at this point, but a few slots higher isn't out of the question if they play well and the teams highlighted above stumble in weeks to come.

McNeese is another team worth monitoring.  They've taken sets from some good clubs.  They look like a tournament team for sure to me.  Angela McGownd is leading the conference in digs per set and I'll try and make her the next interview target when the Cowgirls come to Nacogdoches next week.

Abilene Christian has to be a little better than what we've seen so far, right?  I think most everyone thought they would be better than an 8th seed.

Finally, with at least a five team race for the top, this looks like a year where the #2 or #3 seed has just as much chance at a tournament title as the top team.  If the five teams highlighted here do make out the top five then remember that the winner of the #1/#8 seed game plays the winner of the #4/#5 seed in the second round.  That could pave the way for the #2 or #3 to having a slightly easier road to the final. Also, break out your tiebreaker rules (they aren't what you think they are) because it wouldn't surprise me one bit if five or six teams are separated by two games in the final regular season standings.  The tiebreaker rules are on a tab on the Southland Conference Volleyball website.  They are worth reviewing because they are NOT straight head-to-head tie breaks and as tight as this race looks even losing sets to non-tournament bound teams could have implications.  Don't believe me?  Go read them VERY carefully.