Before we get into breaking down the Bearkats, let me remind you that we will have a live chat here at the blog for Wednesday's match against Sam Houston. We'll get started around 6:45 with pregame commentary.
There are a lot of ways in which Sam Houston and SFA are similar at this point in conference play. SHSU is 7-12 and 1-3 in the SLC. We are 8-11 and also 1-3 in the SLC. SHSU has recently been mixing and matching their starting lineups, especially on the back row. SFA has had three different lineups in each of the last three games. Last weekend, freshman Lindsay Hill got her first start at M2 and the match before that featured a two-setter attack. One slight difference though exists in preseason expectations. The 'Jacks were given the 3rd overall ranking by both the coaches and SID's (Sports Information Directors) while Sam Houston was picked 5th in one poll and 6th in the other. We all know that SFA currently is playing nowhere near the level of what would be expected out of a #3 seed in the conference tournament.
There is a lot of meat in the Stats Focus today, so let's dispatch with the intro and get right to our breakdown...
Who's Who?
Trivia: Name the only freshman on the first team all-conference list last year?
The answer is a paragraph or so down.
The main name to know at Sam Houston is outside hitter Carli Kolbe. Her partner in crime, middle blocker Anna Ferguson has had her four-year parking meter expire and now Kolbe finds herself as the main go-to on offense without an equally effective offensive weapon along side her. Kolbe isn't dissimilar to what we saw last Saturday in TAMUCC's Emma Ridley in terms of her being a very large proportion of her teams' offense. More on this in the 'Stats Focus' section below.
S Kym Loving: Back in the quarterback position after being injured most all of last year and tutoring freshman setter Michelle Miller. Miller has moved on and Loving is healthy and now appears to be back to her 2008 form when she stole the setter role from then senior Meagan McNamara. Loving - at least in years past when I've watched her -- is quite the firestorm. Historically, she's been very vocal, emotional and flamboyant with her facial expressions and on-court chatter and occasional taunts after blocks, etc. Quite the opposite personality to our rather "controlled" and stoic Allison Gideon.
MB Kim Black: A hometown product from right there in Huntsville, Black may be one of the more improved Bearkats over the last two years. She's stepped into big shoes trying to take over for the aforementioned Ferguson, but so far so good as Black has out blocked anyone on our squad and ranks as one of only seven players in the conference to average more than a block per set.
L/OH Kaylee Hawkins: Ahh.. here is the answer to the trivia question above. Hawkins was a first-team all SLC pick at libero last year. So, you've got a freshman who garners that kind of honor and how many games has she started at libero this year? A grand total of three! Now, what's relevant here is that those three come in the last few weeks. Sam Houston has played libero musical chairs through the first half of this season. Early on, the off-colored jersey was worn by Camille Alfaro - who interesting enough was a freshman last year too. When, I first saw that early in the year, I couldn't believe it. Did SHSU need offense so bad that they would shift Hawkins to an outside hitter and install a brand new libero? At any rate, that experiment didn't last long as Brenda Gray tabbed Jamie Haas - who incredibly was ALSO a freshman last year - as the new libero.
Isn't that weird? You've got a freshman FIRST TEAM all-conference libero and you then go with not one, but two of her sophomore classmates before making the decision in recent weeks to go back to her at libero?
Could that possibly be because no one else is stepping up on the attack to go along side Kolbe? One can only assume that Gray thought that Hawkins - despite her prowess at libero - was still her 2nd best option on the outside. Despite the recent shift back to libero, Hawkins is still second on the team in total attacks. Will we see Hawkins at libero tomorrow. Who knows? Haas has started more games there than anyone this year, but she hasn't started there recently.. so that's a bit of an unknown as we travel to Huntsville.
Kolbe, Black, Loving and Hawkins are the only four consistent starters for the Bearkats. Freshman OH Lauren Bohlen was starting regularly for a long while, but hasn't of late. Redshirt freshman OH Kelli Stewart started early in the season, but then didn't start for a string of several matches, but has recently been reinserted into the starting lineup. Clearly, Sam Houston is looking for help on the outside. The starting hitters aside from Kolbe have been in flux. Alfaro started the last match against UTSA, but that's only her second start after she was booted from libero. Recently, the M2 has been occupied by yet another freshman Haley Neisler. Finally, Coach Gray's daughter, Tayler Gray has earned spot starts over the last few weeks. Oh yeah.. she's a freshman too.
Clearly, this team is young. Very young. In fact, there won't be a senior night in Huntsville this year 'cause they ain't got one!
Who to Watch?
You can't help but watch Kolbe. She's emotional. She hits very hard... she's actually quite graceful. That big powerful swing comes from a huge arching of her back as she approaches.. and she can hit the ball hard from anywhere on the court. She takes full - very full - swings from the back row. Despite my semi-picking on her in years past about her temper tantrums, I actually think she was a bit more under control last year. To be honest, she's the kind of player any coach would want on her side. Gray has told me that she actually likes Kolbe to play "possessed" because she's better when she's emotional rather than calm.
My actual focus tomorrow will be on Black, though. She's my pick to watch. In addition to her leading the team in blocking, she is also an excellent server as she currently ranks second in the conference in aces behind the incredibly effective serve of Jessica Hays over at UCA. I'll be interested to see how well our attackers do going up against Black, Neiser and Stewart. All three average more blocks per set than anyone on our roster.
Stats Focus
It's easy to look on the conference website and find the leaders in kills per set. But, what about ATTACKS per set? Look at these two top 10 lists and then ask yourself what pattern you see in the Top 5 during 2010. I have highlighted these in bold.
Top 10 in Attacks Per Set in 2009 (SLC):
1. Emma Ridley, TAMUCC (12.47)
2. Chloe Smith, UCA (11.32)
3. Carli Kolbe, SHSU (11.16)
4. Kendra Rowland, UTSA (9.13)
5. Priscilla Massengale, McNeese (9.13)
6. Jessica Weynand, TX ST (9.12)
7. Yelena Enwere, NWLA (8.90)
8. Chanel Tyler, McNeese (8.78)
9. Anna Ferguson, SHSU (8.77)
10, Kelsey Owens, SFA (8.65)
Top 1o in Attacks Per Set So Far in 2010 (SLC):
1. Emma Ridley, TAMUCC (10.45)
2. Carli Kolbe, SHSU (10.02)
3. Jessica Hays, UCA (9.63)
4. Kendra Rowland, UTSA (9.58)
5. Chloe Smith, UCA (8.84)
6. Jennifer Brandt, Nicholls (8.58)
7. Priscilla Massengale, McNeese (8,44)
8. Amanda Aguilera, UTA (8.41)
9. Lauren Chapman, Nicholls (8.25)
10. Kourtney Adams, NWLA (8.25)
(Our Kelsey Owens would be 11th at 8.22 on this last list)
So, what about the current top five?
Last match was against TAMUCC. Ridley. We lost.
Next to match last was against UTSA. Rowland. We lost.
Match before that was UCA. Hays. Smith. We lost.
Tomorrow: Kolbe.
In four consecutive matches we are facing the five most prominent attackers in terms of being the largest proportion of their teams' offense that the conference has to offer.
If you are on these leader boards it implies that you are in an offense that repeatedly uses you as the primary attacker and it also signifies that you are on a team that runs a heavy, if not disproportionately heavy, dose of its offense through you. The exception being UCA that has two in the top five. But still: My point is that possibly we are seeing a pattern here. Could it be that we have particular trouble containing those offenses where there is one primary weapon? That seems paradoxical. But, we certainly KNEW that Ridley was going to swing 50 to 60 times and we weren't able to stop her.
Same story tomorrow: We know Kolbe is going to swing a lot. In their five set match against TAMUCC she swung 70 times! Will we contain her? The data above says we haven't won against teams that feature an offense which runs the bulk of its offense through one weapon. That is certainly something to ponder as we get closer to 7 PM tomorrow night.
Outlook for Wednesday's Match:
The loser of tomorrow's match will remain in last place in the SLC West. A team that is 1-4 has got to go 7-4 the rest of the way to finish at .500 in conference. I will remind you that we still have to play Texas State twice, UTSA in San Antonio and Lamar who is surging right now. That doesn't even consider that UTA isn't a pushover and we lost to TAMUCC and have to travel there. So, yeah... this is important. There is very little time to waste. We'll see where we are at the end of this week, but a few more steps backwards and SFA may be playing for its tournament life against McNeese and Lamar in the second week of November.
We need to come out strong. I think its time we shake this thing off and re-establish ourselves in this conference. Let's play like we've got something to prove. 'Cause....... We do.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
LIVE CHAT AVAILABLE FROM HUNTSVILLE ON WEDNESDAY
If you've read the article below which was written before the match with TAMUCC, you may now be saying "It looks like the jury may have returned an early verdict." I think I'll stick with my original thought and wait to really form a strong opinion until after this week is over. However, clearly we are not playing our best volleyball right now.
This post is super short since all I wanted to communicate is:
a) I will travel to Huntsville and do a live chat for our match which starts at 7 PM on Wednesday night. Just surf on over here and join me in case you can't make the trip
and
b) There will be a Sam Houston preview posted here Tuesday night so you can read that tomorrow evening or during the day on Wednesday before the match.
Sam Houston is playing with a bit of inconsistentcy too.. mixing and matching their lineup similar to our changes the last match or two, so it will be a battle of underachievers to this point. Here's hoping we right the ship immediately and get back to winning ways.
Check back tomorrow and look for the chat on Wednesday night live from Huntsville.
This post is super short since all I wanted to communicate is:
a) I will travel to Huntsville and do a live chat for our match which starts at 7 PM on Wednesday night. Just surf on over here and join me in case you can't make the trip
and
b) There will be a Sam Houston preview posted here Tuesday night so you can read that tomorrow evening or during the day on Wednesday before the match.
Sam Houston is playing with a bit of inconsistentcy too.. mixing and matching their lineup similar to our changes the last match or two, so it will be a battle of underachievers to this point. Here's hoping we right the ship immediately and get back to winning ways.
Check back tomorrow and look for the chat on Wednesday night live from Huntsville.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Keep the Jury Out for One More Week...
vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
@ Sam Houston
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
_______________________
@Texas-Arlington
@ Texas State
vs. Sam Houston
@ Nicholls
vs. Texas Arlington
vs. Texas State
Those are the next 9 matches. You see where that line is drawn in there? Unfortunately, if the league isn't given a better impression by that point it will probably be time to change our outlook.
Stephen F. Austin volleyball expects to contend for league titles and conference tourney title games EVERY YEAR. Newsflash to freshman and possible recruits if they don't understand this: We expect to be at the top EVERY year and that's just the culture around here.
We all know Central Arkansas and Texas State will hover around the top of the standings, but while UCA hasn't been knocked off (yet), Lamar proved Texas State can be taken down. That provides an opportunity. Get your squad straightened out, start playing consistent ball in all phases of the game - get hot - and what d'ya know - we are right up there in standings too. That's the theory, at least.
But, after taking a whipping by UTSA earlier this week are we right to still "believe" in such theory? I say yes. I think the jury is out for one more week.
Why the optimism? After all, I personally heard UTSA star Kendra Rowland say after the match yesterday "We just beat SFA at SFA" in a tone that conveyed even she didn't believe what had just happened. Nobody is happy with where we are right now. The league has to feel good about coming to Nacogdoches because we've been shaky on our home floor so far. Isn't this all a bunch of reason to doubt?
When I left Johnson Coliseum last night, I didn't have a lot of hope. But, as is so often the case, after a good night of sleep and pondering during the day, I have changed my mind. I believe. Am I being a home-towner blasting sunshine here just cause there is purple all over this page and my pay stub has the university logo on it? Nope - and if you really believe that, you haven't read here very long.
I "believe" still because I have a memory of Samford. I saw it. I watched while in Houston as the Ladyjacks showed what we are when firing in sync and playing consistent, fundamental volleyball. I sincerely believe that if you had stuck Central Arkansas, Texas State, or any other conference opponent on the other side of the net that afternoon they would have left the gym losers. It wasn't just the level of competition.. it was us. It was us playing good volleyball.
That team we saw that day can still emerge as the norm. But it better do so quick.
Let's be honest. There isn't one problem here.
One night - like last night - we get really good performances by KO and MC and then no one steps up offensively to support them, the setting is shaky, the usual outstanding back row play looks average and we serve too many balls in the net.
The next night.. the blocking is on fire, but our outsides hit BingO-54 or something like that and serve receive goes in the trash.
Later in the week, Gideon looks all-world - no problems, but none of the attackers are on and the block looks like its in slow motion.
Next, Maddie and Mel dig everything this side of the Mississippi, but the setting has attackers begging for a back massage after the match and the net might as well be 15 feet off the floor 'cause we ain't hitting any over it.
I think you get it. If you've been to the matches, then you've seen exactly what I am talking about.
Rewind on the UTSA match....
Total Points: SFA 86, UTSA 99
Attack Percentage: SFA .169, UTSA .201
Total Digs: SFA 58, UTSA 67
Total Blocks: SFA 11, UTSA 1o
Service Errors: SFA 9, UTSA 3
Total Errors (attack+block+serve+receive+ ball handling): SFA 44, UTSA 33
Despite all the stuff in the middle of that list.. I think the first and last entries say a lot. They scored 13 more points than us. We had 11 more total errors than them. There it is, huh?
There used to be a fairly controversial adage in baseball about what was the best way to measure the quality of a batter. I think sabermetrics has solved that problem now. In baseball, outs are bad. Don't make outs. The only way your team is made to stop hitting is to make outs. Don't make outs - you get to keep hitting. If you keep hitting, you will score. If you score, you can win.
In Volleyball hitting the ball into the net, out of bounds, touching the net while blocking and the like are bad. Every time you hit the ball over the net and in bounds, the probability remains positive that you will score. When you hit the ball out of bounds or into the net, the probability you will score is zero.
September 17: SFA Total Errors: 40, Samford Total Errors: 56. (Win)
September 25: SFA Total Errors: 48, Central Arkansas Total Errors: 32 (Loss)
A gap of 16 each time. Funny how that works isn't it.
Despite all of this... I have another thought. This I am actually gathering hard data to study and I will present my findings later in the year:
Thought: Tied 1-1, the 3rd set is of paramount importance to a teams eventual chance of winning.
I know, that seems rather obvious, but still, if you think its obvious then doesn't that explain last night against UTSA better than anything?
Again to bring in a baseball reference, it is well known that when a batter has a 1 ball, 1 strike count that the 3rd pitch is incredibly predictive of the ultimate outcome of the at-bat. The difference between a 2 ball, 1 strike count versus a 1 ball, 2 strike count is LARGE.
Let's study this in volleyball, OK? I think we need some data on this and not just our intuition. Just how critical is that 3rd set when tied 1-1? Measure it. I'm working on it.
Let's keep the jury out one more week. Corpus-Christi took Sam Houston to five sets. We all know what they are: Emma Ridley and bunch of interchangeable, not-so impressive parts. Ridley is going to have more attacks than anyone in the gym tomorrow. Their offense is completely geared around her. Just contain her.
Beat TAMUCC convincingly. Go on the road and get some swagger back by taking down Sam Houston. Come back to Nacogdoches and get on a three game - well played - winning streak after beating SELA and then the games below that line at the top of the page will have the implications we expected them to when we began our season in Waco.
It's too early to doubt. I still believe.
@ Sam Houston
vs. Southeastern Louisiana
_______________________
@Texas-Arlington
@ Texas State
vs. Sam Houston
@ Nicholls
vs. Texas Arlington
vs. Texas State
Those are the next 9 matches. You see where that line is drawn in there? Unfortunately, if the league isn't given a better impression by that point it will probably be time to change our outlook.
Stephen F. Austin volleyball expects to contend for league titles and conference tourney title games EVERY YEAR. Newsflash to freshman and possible recruits if they don't understand this: We expect to be at the top EVERY year and that's just the culture around here.
We all know Central Arkansas and Texas State will hover around the top of the standings, but while UCA hasn't been knocked off (yet), Lamar proved Texas State can be taken down. That provides an opportunity. Get your squad straightened out, start playing consistent ball in all phases of the game - get hot - and what d'ya know - we are right up there in standings too. That's the theory, at least.
But, after taking a whipping by UTSA earlier this week are we right to still "believe" in such theory? I say yes. I think the jury is out for one more week.
Why the optimism? After all, I personally heard UTSA star Kendra Rowland say after the match yesterday "We just beat SFA at SFA" in a tone that conveyed even she didn't believe what had just happened. Nobody is happy with where we are right now. The league has to feel good about coming to Nacogdoches because we've been shaky on our home floor so far. Isn't this all a bunch of reason to doubt?
When I left Johnson Coliseum last night, I didn't have a lot of hope. But, as is so often the case, after a good night of sleep and pondering during the day, I have changed my mind. I believe. Am I being a home-towner blasting sunshine here just cause there is purple all over this page and my pay stub has the university logo on it? Nope - and if you really believe that, you haven't read here very long.
I "believe" still because I have a memory of Samford. I saw it. I watched while in Houston as the Ladyjacks showed what we are when firing in sync and playing consistent, fundamental volleyball. I sincerely believe that if you had stuck Central Arkansas, Texas State, or any other conference opponent on the other side of the net that afternoon they would have left the gym losers. It wasn't just the level of competition.. it was us. It was us playing good volleyball.
That team we saw that day can still emerge as the norm. But it better do so quick.
Let's be honest. There isn't one problem here.
One night - like last night - we get really good performances by KO and MC and then no one steps up offensively to support them, the setting is shaky, the usual outstanding back row play looks average and we serve too many balls in the net.
The next night.. the blocking is on fire, but our outsides hit BingO-54 or something like that and serve receive goes in the trash.
Later in the week, Gideon looks all-world - no problems, but none of the attackers are on and the block looks like its in slow motion.
Next, Maddie and Mel dig everything this side of the Mississippi, but the setting has attackers begging for a back massage after the match and the net might as well be 15 feet off the floor 'cause we ain't hitting any over it.
I think you get it. If you've been to the matches, then you've seen exactly what I am talking about.
Rewind on the UTSA match....
Total Points: SFA 86, UTSA 99
Attack Percentage: SFA .169, UTSA .201
Total Digs: SFA 58, UTSA 67
Total Blocks: SFA 11, UTSA 1o
Service Errors: SFA 9, UTSA 3
Total Errors (attack+block+serve+receive+ ball handling): SFA 44, UTSA 33
Despite all the stuff in the middle of that list.. I think the first and last entries say a lot. They scored 13 more points than us. We had 11 more total errors than them. There it is, huh?
There used to be a fairly controversial adage in baseball about what was the best way to measure the quality of a batter. I think sabermetrics has solved that problem now. In baseball, outs are bad. Don't make outs. The only way your team is made to stop hitting is to make outs. Don't make outs - you get to keep hitting. If you keep hitting, you will score. If you score, you can win.
In Volleyball hitting the ball into the net, out of bounds, touching the net while blocking and the like are bad. Every time you hit the ball over the net and in bounds, the probability remains positive that you will score. When you hit the ball out of bounds or into the net, the probability you will score is zero.
September 17: SFA Total Errors: 40, Samford Total Errors: 56. (Win)
September 25: SFA Total Errors: 48, Central Arkansas Total Errors: 32 (Loss)
A gap of 16 each time. Funny how that works isn't it.
Despite all of this... I have another thought. This I am actually gathering hard data to study and I will present my findings later in the year:
Thought: Tied 1-1, the 3rd set is of paramount importance to a teams eventual chance of winning.
I know, that seems rather obvious, but still, if you think its obvious then doesn't that explain last night against UTSA better than anything?
Again to bring in a baseball reference, it is well known that when a batter has a 1 ball, 1 strike count that the 3rd pitch is incredibly predictive of the ultimate outcome of the at-bat. The difference between a 2 ball, 1 strike count versus a 1 ball, 2 strike count is LARGE.
Let's study this in volleyball, OK? I think we need some data on this and not just our intuition. Just how critical is that 3rd set when tied 1-1? Measure it. I'm working on it.
Let's keep the jury out one more week. Corpus-Christi took Sam Houston to five sets. We all know what they are: Emma Ridley and bunch of interchangeable, not-so impressive parts. Ridley is going to have more attacks than anyone in the gym tomorrow. Their offense is completely geared around her. Just contain her.
Beat TAMUCC convincingly. Go on the road and get some swagger back by taking down Sam Houston. Come back to Nacogdoches and get on a three game - well played - winning streak after beating SELA and then the games below that line at the top of the page will have the implications we expected them to when we began our season in Waco.
It's too early to doubt. I still believe.
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